Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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830
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&


.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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