Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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561
FXUS64 KLIX 310941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET AND COOL MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. YOU WILL KNOW
WHEN THE COLDER DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE OUR WINDS BUT IS THE
DRIVING FORCE PUSHING THE COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD THAT IS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND.
WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALL GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A POTENTIAL FREEZE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE
AREA...CLEAR SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR OUR WINDS TO DECOUPLE OR GO
CALM SETS THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS TO OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
LOW 30S...THE QUESTION REMAINS JUST HOW LOW DO THEY GO AND HOW
LONG. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
BE SHORT...HOWEVER THERE IS A REAL CHANCE THAT A FREEZE WARNING
COULD BE NEEDED IF THE WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXCEED 2 TO
3 HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. AFTER THAT THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY OR SOMETIME
SHORTLY THERE AFTER...THE REASON THAT IS BEING SAID THAT WAY IS
BECAUSE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE MULTIPLE PLAYERS ON THE
FIELD IN THE LONG RANGE. ALL MODELS POINT TO A SLOW MOVING
ELONGATED FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
INTERESTING THING IS THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL LOW THAT
IS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL FEATURE TRAVERSES MEXICO
ALONG THE FRONT AND WINDS UP IN TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO
SAY ALL OF THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS ALL MAJOR MODELS...AT LEAST
THESE RUNS...POINT TO THE SCENARIO PLAYING OUT BUT WITH DIFFERENT
TIMING AND PROGRESSION. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN FOR TAFS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE WINDS. AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DIVES DOWN INTO THE
REGION WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTN AND
THROUGH THE EVNG. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF
THE LAKE IMPACTING KNEW AND KMSY. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVNG AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KTS OVER
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THAT WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A SCY FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS BEGINNING AT 21Z. CAA WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SLACK OFF AS WE MOVE INTO SAT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE TIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING SAT BUT
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL FINALLY RELAX.
WAVES/SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 8-9 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS AND RIGHT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVER. WINDS WILL BACK OFF ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES TO DROP BY SUN
MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SUN AND INTO
MON BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ONSHORE WILL COMMENCE
AND WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL START TO PICK BACK UP. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  35  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  74  37  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  74  37  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  45  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  75  40  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  75  36  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







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