Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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995
FXUS64 KLIX 282121
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. PRETTY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL WILD CARD
IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THIS FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND STALL FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT ACTUALLY STALLS...
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING MID LATITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL SKIRT AROUND THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE RATHER THAN DISPLACING IT. WITH THAT SAID...AM
CARRYING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE
WEEK AS THESE DISTURBANCES PASS BY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO ISSUES FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. ONLY CONCERN COULD BE TEMPO MVFR
VSBYS AT MCB FOR 5SM BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW EVNG.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
MONDAY SHOULD STALL INLAND OF THE COAST BUT RELAX THE WIND FIELD
WHILE BULKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
CONSIDERATIONS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES/BAYS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  43  69  54  74 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  49  72  54  75 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  43  69  54  74 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  51  70  59  75 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  43  68  55  73 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  68  51  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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