Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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711
FXUS64 KLIX 020923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMMENCING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY RACING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIE MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...COPIOUS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SURGING INTO THE AREA WITH MID
TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS NOW IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...LIKELY
MID MORNING AND ONWARD. EXPECTING SPACIAL COVERAGE OF THEM TO BE
QUITE LIMITED WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN PLACE JUST YET.
THE MAIN SHOW COMES IN TONIGHT AT SFC PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM MID LEVEL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THERE/S STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE LATTER
BEING THE SLOWER OF THE TWO BY 3-6 HOURS. THE ACTUAL WILL PROBABLY
BE SOMETHING IN BETWEEN WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS PASSING ACROSS
THE CWA FROM EARLY TO LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT LACK APPRECIABLE WIND/SHEAR
INTENSITY FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT 500MB WINDS BARELY
REACH 40 KNOTS. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WON/T BE STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING MOVING THROUGH. JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH SEVERE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF ON THE BACK SIDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST PRECIP EXITING THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POST FRONTAL COOLER AIR WILL
DROP TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WE`VE SEEN SINCE LAST SPRING HEADED OUR WAY. THE LATEST
FCST WILL SHOW HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH MID 70S ON SAT AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 45S THAT THAT NIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE GFS WAS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS AND ECMWF/MET WERE QUITE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. THE OFFICIAL FCST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO
MODIFY EVEN BY SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY PROBABLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. WHILE ANOTHER BRIEF COOLING PERIOD IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WILL SIDE WITH GFS/S
MORE SHALLOW TROUGH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CATEGORY CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED OVER
AREAS FROM NEAR KL38-KBTR-KHDC-KMCB...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
EXPAND ACROSS OTHER TAF AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH A BIT MORE TSRA EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL INSERT TEMPO TSRA FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND PREVAILING SHRA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY FOR BTR AND MCB. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS WILL
HOVER AROUND 3055M BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LAYERS TO DROP TO 2990M BY
SATURDAY 12Z AND GFS HOLDS THE THIS LAYER THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...SIMILAR TO EURO.

GFS AND EURO HAVE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS IS STILL SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. WITH HIGH BUILDING THE OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT COUPLED THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST...THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DROPOFF WIND SPEEDS OUT THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  72  83  53 /  60  70  40  10
BTR  89  74  85  56 /  60  70  50  10
ASD  88  75  85  56 /  60  50  60  10
MSY  88  77  85  63 /  60  50  60  10
GPT  86  75  84  57 /  50  50  60  10
PQL  87  75  84  56 /  50  50  60  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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