Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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887
FXUS64 KLIX 020757
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
257 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LATE SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH AN EXTENSION
WESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...OTHERWISE JUST
SOME CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWING
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.35 INCHES...ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. SOME HINT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE WEAKER
ON THE GFS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY MOIST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 2
INCHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MET GUIDANCE MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE ON POPS AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...GENERALLY IN THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE. WITH TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT SEE MANY PLACES GETTING MUCH ABOVE 91
OR 92...AND THAT COULD OCCUR BEFORE 18Z THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME
HINTS OF SLIGHT DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO GOING POPS FOR NOW. THIS MAY JUST MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LATER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE FORECAST TRENDS OF GENERAL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCE TODAY AND TOMORROW. A WEAK
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY SEE
DEW POINTS LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT BARELY NOTICEABLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. A FEW OF THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMCB
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR
OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AROUND AND PRIOR TO SUNRISE TODAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  92  72 /  50  30  50  20
BTR  92  75  93  74 /  50  30  40  20
ASD  91  76  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  91  77  91  77 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  90  77  91  76 /  40  20  40  20
PQL  91  75  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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