Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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941
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
807 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS MOIST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE YIELDING A
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.28 INCHES. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER AT AROUND 600 J/KG. TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 850MB ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER /WARMER/ AND FROM
800 TO 600MB A FEW DEGREES LOWER /COOLER/ THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE FROM THE EAST...IN THE
MID- LEVELS FROM THE SOUTH...AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST. A PEAK WIND OF 40 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 37500
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 114 MINUTES THIS
MORNING REACHING A HEIGHT OF 21.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING JUST SOUTHEAST OF PICAYUNE MS 15 MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT HAS BEEN MUCH QUIETER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WE APPEAR TO BE B/T DISTURBANCES WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE STILL
BACK TO OUR WEST OVER TX. THIS HAS LED TO TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
CONVECTION...ONE TO OUR EAST IN THE GULF AND THE SECOND MUCH LARGER
AREA TO OUR WEST AND SW. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND TEMPS ARE
FAR WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE
AREA MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT 7Z.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY TODAY JUST TIMING HAS BEEN A LITTLE
SLOWER. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF TX TODAY. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVERRUNNING AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN GULF AND WITH THAT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED
TSRA WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS. OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL.
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA BUT EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR. COMBINE THAT WITH
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MAINLY ANTICIPATING
MODERATE SHRA. SPOTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TSRA
OCCUR BUT MAINLY LOOK FOR 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE ENE. LIGHT SHRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BEFORE WE TEMPORARILY DRY OUT
AS S/W RIDGING TAKES PLACE MON AFTN AND NIGHT. /CAB/

LONG TERM...HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WE SEE A
SLIGHT WARM UP JUST BEFORE OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS FRI WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY WORK
EAST CAUSING THE S/W RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUE TO BREAK DOWN WITH SW
FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING. THE SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS THU NIGHT AND FRI.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE L/W TROUGH DOMINATING
THE ERN CONUS FRI AND DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND INTO THE SERN STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SW WITH DEEP NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A NICE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS DEEP INTO THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CNTRD OVER GULF COAST SUN
MORNING. IF EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT LIKE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THEN
MORNING LOWS SUN COULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO THE LOWER 60S. /CAB/

AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIKEWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL IMPACT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. 11

MARINE...

MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 7 AM TODAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHERLY ON MONDAY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  69  86  68 /  70  60  20  10
BTR  81  70  85  69 /  80  60  20  10
ASD  82  68  86  67 /  90  80  30  20
MSY  81  72  83  73 /  90  80  30  20
GPT  80  69  85  68 /  90  80  30  20
PQL  81  68  84  65 / 100  90  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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