Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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733
FXUS64 KLIX 261837
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1237 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE REGION
TONIGHT TO BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS AT
KNEW MAINLY AFTER 27/06Z.

MEFFER
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
REALLY DROPPED THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHSHORE AND MID 30S SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. EXPECT A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE
CAN BE SEEN WELL ON THE IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY SERVE AS A REINFORCING SHOUT OF COLD
AIR AS THERE IS NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND STARTS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY. THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SORT
OF BOUNDARY OR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THAT COULD SERVE AS ENOUGH
LIFT TO KICK OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS
NOT REALLY CONSISTENT ON THE NEXT MAJOR RAIN CHANCE BUT IT LOOKS
TO FAVOR SOMETIME AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

MARINE...
RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH
GULF TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING DUE TO RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WILL POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO GO INTO
EFFECT AT 6 PM CST FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WILL INDICATE `EXERCISE CAUTION`
CONDITIONS ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND WESTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN STAYS PARKED OVER THE GULF STATES WHILE SLOWLY MODERATING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. SOME RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM GETS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  56  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  41  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  59  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  47  59  41  61 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  42  59  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  59  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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