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652
FXUS64 KLIX 172026
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...
MAINLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF
ALONG WITH OUR INFAMOUS SUMMER HEAT WILL PROVIDE THE OPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE ALL COME TO KNOW SO WELL HERE IN THE GULF
SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BUT THE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPPED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
WEAKEN AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS TUE. AS THE NEW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN...THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND SPREAD OUT OVER THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY WED. THE FRONT
WILL USE THIS MOISTURE AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR TS ACTIVITY AND
THEIR OUTFLOWS STARTING NEW TS THROUGH FRI.

.LONG TERM...
A TRANSFORMATION TO A DEEPER MORE TROPICAL AIR FLOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING TEMPS TO COOL JUST A BIT.
A FEW TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AS WELL NEXT WEEK...OR AT
LEAST WE WILL NOTICE THEM SINCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF
SOMEWHAT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY HIGHER THAN IT HAS RECENTLY
BEEN...EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND TROPICAL
WAVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO ALL TERMINALS BASED ON THE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY THOUGH NOT ALL WILL BE IMPACTED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL CAUSE ABRUPT WIND
SHIFTS THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT TYPICAL WEAKENING DISSIPATION AS THE SUN SETS. -BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SUBSEQUENTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS FROM
5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  90  71  91 /  20  40  20  50
BTR  74  92  74  92 /  20  40  20  50
ASD  72  91  72  91 /  20  30  20  50
MSY  76  91  76  91 /  20  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  20  30  20  50
PQL  72  90  72  90 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$