Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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876
FXUS64 KLIX 270831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPTIC...RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN NM WITH ONE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE OTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE NW ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS THROUGH UTAH AND TWRDS THE PAC NW. S/W EMBEDDED IN THE NRN
STREAM IS NOW OVER NRN MN. AT THE SFC THE GULF WAS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BASICALLY CNTRD SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WAS DRAPED MOSTLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM WRN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER QUIET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE MISSLOU
AREA. RADAR IS NICE AND QUIET BUT TEMPS AT 7Z WERE RANGING FROM 77
TO 83 WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS STILL REPORTING A HEAT INDEX AROUND
90.

ONE MORE MOSTLY QUIET DAY IN STORE BUT LOOK FOR IT TO BE A WARM
MUGGY ONE AGAIN. RIDGE AXIS FROM THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. WILL THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW
STORMS...NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT BUT IF ANY CONVECTION OCCURS
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. H925 TEMPS OF 24-26C
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN
MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS TO AT LEAST BE EQUAL TO YESTERDAY IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. COMBINE THAT WITH THE RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AND WE COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN
ISLTD LOCATIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.

MON THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. THE MID LVLS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
AND THE RIDGE WILL START TO LOSE SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO SEND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SOUTH
TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER AFTN
CONVECTION MON BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WONT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN MON NIGHT.

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARENT QUITE IN AGREEMENT
LIKE THEY WERE THE PREV NIGHT BUT THE MAJORITY AT LEAST BRING THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT MON AND APPROACHING THE COAST TUE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES WILL DICTATE ON HOW MUCH
DRY AND COOLER AIR PUSHES IN. IF THE FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO NUDGE
SOUTH INTO THE GULF THEN THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COMFORTABLE TUE NIGHT BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS ON THE COAST TUE THEN
TUE NIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN PREV NIGHTS BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL
FOR JULY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH HPC AND THE GFS
AND GOING WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR LOWS WED MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MDLS ARE SOMEWHAT ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH EXACT
POSITION OF OUR FRONT. GFS PUSHES IT THROUGH SOUTH OF THE COAST TUE
NIGHT BUT LAYS IT UP OVER SWRN LA AND THEN NUDGES BACK NORTH OVER
THE CWA THU. ECMWF STALLS IT OVER SRN LA TUE AND IT JUST MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE AND REINFORCING FRONT
PUSHES IT INTO THE GULF SAT...YES A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. WITH SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH IT BEING SUMMER AND KIND OF AN UNUSUAL
TIME TO GET COLD FRONTS WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND
APPROACH TO THE FCST WITH A LITTLE WEIGHT GIVEN TWRDS THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS.

WED SHOULD BE DRIER THAN TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND DRIER AIR FINALLY OVER THE REGION. THAT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST PLACES. WED NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER NICE JULY NIGHT AS LONG AS
THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S COULD LEAD TO MORNING LOWS THU 5 DEGREES OR POSSIBLY MORE BELOW
NORMAL.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS BEGIN TO COME IN FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
NOW WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF FRONT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON TEMPS
AND POPS. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER NW FLOW AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK IMPULSE COMING ACROSS THE REGION AND IF
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE REGION THEN THERE COULD BE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH. AS FOR TEMPS STILL FEEL LIKE WE WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. EITHER THERE WILL BE DECENT CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION WHICH WILL HURT DAYTIME HEATING EVEN WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP UP IN LL TEMPS OR THE COLD FRONT BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
COOL LL TEMPS OVER THE REGION.

FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH AND THERE IS EVEN SUGGESTIONS FROM THE
MDLS THAT THE TROUGH COULD CLOSE OFF AND DIG SOUTH PROVIDING
CONTINUE COOL WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z.
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD
RANGING FROM 3000 TO 5000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT WEAKEN
EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  75  91  71 /  10  10  40  30
BTR  95  76  92  74 /  10  10  40  40
ASD  94  76  92  73 /  20  10  40  40
MSY  91  77  92  76 /  20  20  30  40
GPT  94  81  95  77 /  20  10  40  40
PQL  91  75  90  72 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER




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