Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
173
FXUS64 KLIX 212011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE 1020MB SITUTATED OVER THE MID-GULF STATES AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NUDGE EASTWARD A LITTLE
BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW A FRONTAL ZONE TO SAG INTO THE AREA. RESIDUAL
SUBSIDENCE AND SOME DRAINAGE ASPECTS MAY ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY NOT BE FULLY
AFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK ANTICIPATED TO ROLL IN ON
LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE. ONE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION MOVING NORTHEAST. MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BULK OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATION
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILTY TO SUPPORT NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. WITH FRONT ENTERING AREA AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER THAT ENDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL
MAINTAIN ONGOING FORECAST 20-40 PERCENT IN A N-S GRADIENT FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED FOR THE EVENING HOURS...ALL ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH A SENSE OF PERSISTENCE DEVELOPING HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. CONTINENTAL HIGH POST-FRONTAL WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
AND ONSET ONSHORE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH LIKLIHOOD OF
DAILY SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DIFFICULT NOT TO KEEP AT LEAST 20-30 PERCENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON IN THIS REGIME. NEXT ORGANIZED
SYSTEM IS INDICATED TO BE AN APPROACHING SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY THAT
MAY STALL OVER THE AREA FOR A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
STORMS. THIS IS CURRENTLY JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST WINDOW BUT
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ADVECTION ON LOW LEVEL JET TO ESTABLISH
MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING THAT MAY LOWER TO IFR WITH ACCOMPANYING
RADIATIONAL FOG MAINLY IN DRAINAGE AFFECTED AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE
THE CASE AT KMCB...KGPT...KPQL AND KASD. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME
VARIABLE HIGH END MVFR-LOW END VFR AFTER 15Z WTH CONVECTION AHEAD
OF FRONT WARRANTING AT LEAST VCTS AFTER 22/17Z IN WESTERN
TERMINALS AND VCSH EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF. FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING TO VEER
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY BUT STILL AT RATHER LIGHT LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE FRINGE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH GULF AND MOVE EAST TO KEEP
WINDS VEERING THROUGH EASTERLY WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW THEREAFTER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT RATHER LOW LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ONCE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  79  57  84 /  10  40  20  10
BTR  59  84  61  84 /  10  30  20  10
ASD  59  79  60  82 /  10  30  10  10
MSY  60  79  64  81 /  10  30  10  10
GPT  59  77  62  80 /  10  30  10  10
PQL  56  77  59  77 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.