Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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318
FXUS64 KLIX 251303
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
803 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

STRONG SURFACE INVERSION OF 10C THIS MORNING WILL MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TAKES PLACE.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAKER INVERSION BETWEEN 840 AND 790 MB. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ARE FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE WEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT WE HAD A LOT OF
MOISTURE IN THE FIRST PLACE. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 68 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 42900 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THIS MORNING/S FLIGHT LASTED 95 MINUTES AND
ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING. THE
BALLOON TERMINATED OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE BORGNE 34 MILES
DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PERFECT FALL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE AIR MASS
WILL MODIFY A LITTLE...BRINGING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. MAV WAS RIGHT ON SPOT FOR FCST HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE BUMPED UP PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS TO MAV GUIDANCE. SO
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE DAY.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. PROBABLY HALF OR MORE OF THE CWA WILL BE
ABOVE 85  DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MONDAY SHOULD SIMPLY BE A
REPEAT OF SAT/SUN AS THE UPPER HIGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST.

LONG TERM...
DARE I SAY RAIN CHANCES MAY BE COMING BACK? WELL...AT LEAST THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE THERE. UPPER AND SFC HIGHS SLIDING EAST EARLY
THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN AND BRING MOISTURE
LEVELS BACK UP. THIS IN COMBINATION WILL FALLING PRESSURE INDUCED BY
AN APPROACHING TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND RACING EAST
WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO STALL AND SOMEWHAT DISSIPATE UNTIL A
REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 18

MARINE...
A 1020MB HIGH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED OVER LAND AND NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  54  84  59 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  85  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  81  54  84  56 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  81  60  83  64 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  81  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  81  53  83  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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