Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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098
FXUS64 KLIX 260847
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VERY QUIET YET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE REGION. TEMPS AT
8Z WERE STILL IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO
THE WSW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE 4 CORNERS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WARM MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RATHER ENTRENCHED OVER
THE 4 CORNERS WITH THE WRN RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY LAT SUN THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
MAIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
WILL BE JUST THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL SEND US
ANOTHER JULY COLD FRONT BUT PRIOR TO THAT LOOK FOR WARM TEMPS AND
VERY LITTLE RAIN THIS WEEKEND. H925 TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND 24-26C
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER AND POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
MORNING LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80S. AS FOR
CONVECTION ISLTD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAT UP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BNDRY.

HEADING INTO MON THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MON AND
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TWRDS THE AREA. THIS COLD
FRONT...THE NW FLOW...AND LOWERING HGHTS WILL LEAD TO BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ON MON BUT MORE SO MON NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
SLIDE INTO THE AREA. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF OUR UNUSUAL JULY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS STILL THE
STRONGEST BUT THE ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW AND WITH THAT
HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND APPROACH OF THE MDLS.

COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY
MID/LATE TUE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TO AN END SLOWLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TUE AND MORE SO TUE NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH. ON WED AND THU H925 TEMPS COULD BE
AS LOW AS 21-23C LEADING TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
NEAR 90 SOUTH. AS FOR MORNING LOWS...DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO
SOME RATHER COOL MORNING LOWS WED AND THU. HAVE NOT GONE AS COLD AS
WE COULD REACH RIGHT NOW BUT AM SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO GO A LITTLE
COOLER FOR WED AND THU MORNING. THE FRONT COULD EVENTUALLY STALL
NEAR THE COAST AND THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES SUCH AS HUM AND MCB. CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME AND BE LEFT UP TO
AMENDMENTS FOR ANY TSRA INCLUSION.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING
FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
BRING NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AND WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  92  75  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  92  76  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  91  78  91  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  90  75  90  76 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER




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