Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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411
FXUS64 KLIX 130750
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
JUST OFF OF THE LOUISIANA COAST TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. DRIER AIR THAT HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 90S.

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL DE-AMPLIFY
SOMEWHAT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PULLS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW FILLS AND
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND PASS WELL TO OUR
NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WILL BE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS CONCERNED BEYOND THIS WORK WEEK...A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE RETURNS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH MORE QUIET PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. DRIER
AIR WILL WORK IN WITH ONLY SCT CU AROUND 5-6K ANTICIPATED WHILE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE OUT OF THE NORTH. ONLY
MINOR ISSUE COULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
GAIN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH BUT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS WITH SEAS
MUCH OF THE TIME AT 2 FT OR LESS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  67 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  69  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  91  70 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  91  74  91  75 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  91  70  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  91  69  91  69 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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