Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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563
FXUS64 KLIX 081259
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
759 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

AN OVERALL MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 530 MB AND 470 MB
AND BETWEEN 340 MB AND 275 MB SINCE LAST EVENING/S SOUNDING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES AT
2.13 INCHES THIS MORNING. THE LIFTED INDEX WAS CALCULATED AT -5.2
AND MLCAPE WAS AT 1825 J/KG. GIVEN THIS ATMOSPHERE AND STORM MOTIONS
OF JUST A FEW KNOTS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND MAY CREATE PONDING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AND TYPICAL LOW-WATER AREAS.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT WITH THE BALLOON TERMINATING
17.3 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE CENTER PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AT A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS OF 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER
CONTINUE AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 20. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING...EVEN OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...AND A FEW HINTS OF
FOG...BUT NO MAJOR ISSUES. AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...3 AM
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

SHORT TERM...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES.
WITH NO FOCUSING MECHANISM ON TUESDAY OTHER THAN LAKE AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED. AS MOISTURE LEVELS FALL ON WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO DIFFERENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...SO A BLEND WILL WORK JUST FINE AND IS NEAR PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 35

LONG TERM...

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AS AIRMASS MODIFIES
AND MOISTENS SOMEWHAT. HAVE SHADED TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN MEX NUMBERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL NOTE THAT
NEWEST NUMBERS FROM ECMWF WOULD INDICATE THAT WE MAY NEED TO DROP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES MORE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATING. OTHER THAN PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT MCB AROUND SUNRISE...
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL BE ADDING VCTS IN ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE AFTN PERIOD. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEFFER

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS GENERALLY 1
FOOT OR LESS. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATING THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
THUS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL BACKING TO MORE
DUE EAST WITH TIME. NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION SPEEDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  92  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  30  10  20  10
ASD  91  72  91  72 /  40  20  20  10
MSY  91  77  91  77 /  40  10  20  10
GPT  92  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
PQL  92  72  91  72 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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