Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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128
FXUS64 KLIX 160130
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
830 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
IN CASE YOU DIDN/T NOTICE...ITS DRY OUT THERE. SURFACE DEWPOINT
TOUCHED THE UPPER 50S TODAY IN A FEW LOCATIONS WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING AS ALL THAT WAS NEEDED WAS TO A LITTLE MIXING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS COME BACK UP TO AROUND 1.2" AND SHOULD
CONTINUE ON THIS UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CAPE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE STILL TOO
WARM FOR ANY CONVECTION TO BREAK THIS CAP.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS IS PROVIDING US
WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DISCUSSION...
OVER THE WEEKEND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA
BUT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT TO THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER US WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING A
RETURN FLOW OF MOIST GULF AIR TO RETURN BY MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY SOUTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND
WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS WE MAY SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY MID WEEK SHOULD BRING MOIRE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW US TO DESTABILIZE AND GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUD
COVER MAY BE A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
CEILINGS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD BE NEAR FL040. 35

MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO DISCUSS CONCERNING MARINE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS RISING TO NEAR 3 FT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  90  72  90 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  68  91  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  67  90  74  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  73  91  76  91 /  10  20  20  40
GPT  71  91  75  91 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  66  90  73  90 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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