Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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734
FXUS64 KLIX 162258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO REACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST
NOW REALLY GETTING INTO THE BATON ROUGE AREA. STORMS TODAY HAVE
BEEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS OUR AREA HOWEVER THE STORMS STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH THAT BEING SAID THERE REMAINS A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10 PM. RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE MORE OF A LOCAL ISSUE MORE SO THAN A WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND THEY DO NOT REALLY PUSH THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT EXPECT COLDER DRIER AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT EXPECT WINDS TO BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT WE EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND
ALSO ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MID 20S NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THAT WOULD PUT US INTO THE HARD
FREEZE CATEGORY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A FREEZE TO EVEN MAKE IT
DOWN INTO THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREAS AS WELL TUESDAY MORNING. SO
LOOK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE FREEZE WARNINGS TO COME OUT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE COLD AIR APPROACHES. THIS FREEZE WILL BE
MORE PROLONGED THAN THE PREVIOUS FREEZE LAST WEEK. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID 40S EVERYWHERE. SOME
MODERATION WILL OCCUR BY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SOME IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY OUT OF THE NORTH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE
MADE A FEW CHANGES WITH THE HEADLINES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LAKES THROUGH 6 AM. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
ELEVATED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT SHOULD YIELD GALE
FORCE GUST OUT OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WARNING FOR THESE GUSTS STARTING 6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE MONDAY WITH FREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  47  23  44 / 100  10   0   0
BTR  40  49  23  47 / 100  10   0   0
ASD  45  52  25  47 / 100  30   0   0
MSY  47  51  32  47 / 100  30   0   0
GPT  48  53  27  47 / 100  30   0   0
PQL  50  54  26  47 / 100  40   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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