Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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905
FXUS64 KLIX 140911
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A BREAK IN THE RAIN DO NOT HOLD YOUR
BREATH. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNINGTO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITATBLE
WATER VALUES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE AROUND TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...THATS NOT TO SAY THAT ONE OR TO STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. THIS MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY IF YOU GET UNDER SOME OF THESE DEEPER
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THE ONLY THING IS THAT IT MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED BUT WILL
ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES TODAY AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES IN THE SHORT
TERM. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THIS ACTIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG RANGE. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE
A PRETTY WET FRIDAY AS WELL...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THATS IN PLACE TODAY COULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY IF YOU
TAKE MODELS AT FACE VALUE. THERE WILL BE HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW FINALLY MOVING OUT LATE THIS WEEKEND...UNTIL THEN RAIN
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. HAVE CONTINUED THE BLENDED APPROACH FROM
LAST PACKAGE. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO CONTINUE WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD. COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BEGINNING
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH IF SOME DRYING WORKS IN AFTER THE UPPER LOW
PULLS OUT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
THE TAFS ARE GOING TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND TRENDS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. SOME EARLY DEVELOPMENTS
ALREADY IN PROXIMITY TO KHUM AND A LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING KBTR...LIKELY TO BRING VARABLE CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBY THIS
MORNING THOSE LOCATIONS. HRRR MODEL BLOSSOMS PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO 18Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AT LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS. A LONG FETCHED
SITUATION FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATES A DEEP SWELL TRAIN ON
FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BRING SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FEET IN THE OPEN
WATERS...WITH SOME 8 FOOT RANDOM WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS THAT MAY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT SOME POINT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
 MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  65  77  66 /  80  40  60  40
BTR  77  66  79  67 /  80  40  60  40
ASD  78  67  79  68 /  80  40  60  40
MSY  78  68  79  69 /  80  40  60  40
GPT  77  69  77  70 /  70  40  60  40
PQL  79  68  79  69 /  70  40  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-046>050-
     056>070-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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