Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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677
FXUS64 KLIX 130933
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY
LED TO RATHER COOL AFTN HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MOST OF THOSE
THICK HIGH CLOUDS LEFT THE REGION LATE YESTERDAY AFTN. STRATUS HAS
BEEN SURGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE OVC EARLY.
THIS LAYER OF STRATUS HAS REALLY PUT A DAMPER ON LOWS THIS MORNING
OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE FCST WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MON/TUE. FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW A WEAK S/W
MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING THIS EVNG AND
TOMORROW. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE REGION
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE SUN BEFORE FINALLY PULLING OFF TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS MODERATING AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.

HEADING INTO MON THROUGH TUE WE WILL HAVE A SHOT OF SOME RAIN. AS
PREV FCSTR MENTIONED THE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE PAC COASTS HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS EARLY MON AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY MON AFTN. THIS WILL
DRIVE A WEAK (PACIFIC) COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
THROUGH OUR CWA AND INTO THE GULF TUE MORNING. AS FOR OUR WEATHER IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL AT BEST SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA. THE S/W WILL
BE PULLING OFF TO THE NE WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY DYNAMICS/SUPPORT
OVER OUR AREA. IN FACT THE ONLY REAL FORCING/LIFT WILL BE THE COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SCARCE. WITH ALL OF THAT WILL STICK WITH CHC SHRA AND CONTINUE TO
KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE FCST. VERY LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY MON IN THE NW AND RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
VERY EARLY TUE MORNING NW TO SE.     /CAB/

.LONG TERM... MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH RESPECT TO
THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUE MORNING THINGS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THU
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS TUE AND
WED WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO MODERATE THU AS SW FLOW ALOFT SETS IN.
THIS IS WHERE THE MDLS BEGINNING TO STRUGGLE. AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND HOW FAR NORTH WILL THIS SYSTEM GO. BOTH
MDLS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH GFS MAKING THE LARGEST SHIFT
NORTH. THE FURTHER NORTH THIS SYSTEM GOES THE LESSER THE IMPACTS
WILL BE ON OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS SHOWING DECENT RAIN CHANCES FRI AND INTO
SAT AND NOT FAVORING ANY ONE SOLN YET. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE NORTH GULF WATERS.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY WRAP AROUND TO
SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. MODELS
SUGGESTING THE NEXT FRONT TO SWING THROUGH TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  45  69  49 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  69  48  71  52 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  46  69  49 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  66  50  69  54 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  47  66  50 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  65  44  67  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER




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