Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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704
FXUS64 KLIX 222030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

DRIER AIR FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WORKING ITS WAY OUT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED FIRST ON THE SOUTHSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND
WASHINGTON PARISH AS STORMS DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO
STRETCH OUT EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AIDED BY THE
UPPER LOW BUT QUICKLY DROP BACK DOWN BELOW SUMMER NORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE STALLING OUT. THAT FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER
MAKER IN OUR AREA IT STRUGGLES TO MAKE A PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF EITHER FRONT HAS ANY
REAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF OUR NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AFTER 00Z SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN.  OVERALL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TIED
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE AREA.  THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.  HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT THIS CONVECTIVE RISK FROM 16Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3000-5000 FEET OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES OF 1-2 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  70  91 /  30  40  20  30
BTR  71  92  72  93 /  20  50  20  30
ASD  72  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  30
MSY  75  90  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  74  89  75  90 /  30  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO






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