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064
FXUS64 KLIX 151802
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KBTR...KMCB...AND KHUM WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO CIGS OR SLIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE STILL
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME VERY NICE
DAYS HERE RECENTLY...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TODAY AND REALLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS TEXAS AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BATTLE THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS
FEATURE PASSING BY ON THURSDAY HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A DECENT CAP IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MORNING BUT THE CAP ERODES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND WOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO TAKE PLACE. SOME OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SHOWER OR
STORM IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES MOS
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ACCEPTED
WITH VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING TAKES
OVER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE STILL IS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH
THIS POTENTIAL FRONT...MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER KEEPING TUESDAY
FAIRLY DRY. HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOME CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP ON DAYTIME HEATING AS LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INCREASES SLOWLY BUT ONCE AGAIN...BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.
24/RR

MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THINKING IN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A LIGHT WIND FIELD NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH JUST MODEST
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN TIME. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
IMPART A STEADY LONG FETCHED GROUND SWELL BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE AND 6-8 SECOND PERIODS. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  59  82  63 /   0  10  20  10
BTR  83  62  84  69 /   0  10  20  10
ASD  82  61  82  66 /   0  10  20  10
MSY  82  65  82  68 /   0  10  20  10
GPT  80  64  80  67 /   0  10  20  10
PQL  82  61  81  62 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$