Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

269
FXUS64 KLIX 222159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
VORTICITY FEATURE AND SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS. ONCE THESE
FEATURES MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE BRIEF RESPITE OF SPRING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE HERE MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WARM FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH ONLY ABOUT 2-3 DIURNAL
RANGE INDICATED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST GULF THAT BRINGS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE COLD LAYER FOR A COLD RAIN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM PAST RUNS THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON
WHERE THE ULTIMATE FREEZE LINE SETTLES AND ESTABLISHING THE
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
SHAVED PIKE AND WALTHALL COUNTIES AS WELL AS ST HELENA AND EAST
FELICIANA PARISHES FROM THE FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
MAINTAINING A LINE FROM ROUGHLY LIBERTY MS TO NEW ROADS LA...AND
BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE CRITICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST COULD EASILY SWAY ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER...BUT RECENT
TEMPERATURE PERFORMANCE IN THE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TEMPS
COULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS REMAINS A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SITUATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
RE-ENFORCING COLD SHOT SURGES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
FLUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIER AND COOL WITH A WARMING
TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KNEW AFTER 05Z. A LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD BE IN PLACE
OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 05Z TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. EXPECT TO SEE PREVAILING IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS DOMINATE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z. SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS
INCREASING FROM 300-800 FEET TO 800-1500 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
14Z.  32

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT SOUTH SWELL AROUND 5 FEET IS A RESULT FROM FULLY
DEVELOPED SEA-STATE THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD SETTLE OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WITH ATTENDENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL THEN PROVIDE A CONFUSED SEA AND STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR THE BETTER PART OF
MONDAY BEFORE SETTLING TO LOWER LEVELS LATE MONDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MON NIGHT.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  39  42  33  45 /  50  60  40  40
BTR  43  44  35  45 /  50  60  50  40
ASD  47  49  39  46 /  40  60  50  40
MSY  48  51  41  47 /  30  60  50  40
GPT  47  50  39  47 /  40  50  40  40
PQL  47  50  39  47 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

24/RR
32





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.