Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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653
FXUS64 KLIX 231243
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. STRONG SURFACE
INVERSION HAS SET UP THROUGH ABOUT 900MB. DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX
THIS INVERSION OUT. THERE ARE TWO SMALLER...WEAKER INVERSIONS WITH
THE FIRST AROUND 425 MB AND THE OTHER AROUND 160 MB...WHICH IS
NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE. WINDS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND LIGHT. WINDS ARE STRONGER
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST WITH A PEAK WIND OF 66 KNOTS AT 36500 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 19.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AFTER 93 MINUTES IN FLIGHT.
THE BALLOON WENT 29.6 MILES DOWNRANGE BURSTING OVER DIAMONDHEAD
MS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS
NORTH OF THE LAKE AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTH OF THE LAKE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S...TODAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN. EURO HAS
SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONT AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS TIMING FROM LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RUN. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ALSO OF NOTE
IS THAT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE GFS NOW SHOWING A CLEANER/STRONGER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE EURO...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS. LUCKILY THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...SO A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND BEYOND. A
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES 150-250 WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE AT KNEW AND KMSY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH 7 AM. THESE CONDITIONS
MAY SLOWLY ABATE TODAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED.

THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET
OR LESS ON MONDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  75  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  56  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  74  50  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  75  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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