Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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102
FXUS64 KLIX 100916
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH
THE CENTER HAVING SHIFTED EAST THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RESPOND MUCH TODAY...SO IT WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL
A BIT MORE MUGGY ON FRIDAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE AND TEMPERATURES INLAND FROM THE COAST RISE A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES. WEAK MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MID
LEVELS...HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL START TO
STREAM IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS. MOISTURE LAYERS WILL BE WAY TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY MENTION OF RAIN. 22/TD

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISAGREEMENTS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE EURO HAVE SPED UP THE SPEED OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
BY ABOUT 6 HOURS...WITH THE THREAT OF CONVECTION INCREASED DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...AND CONTINUE TO
HIGH END CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE DRY LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
WEEKEND.  THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING ON
MONDAY...AS THE MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL STILL BE BOTTLED UP
BEHIND THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH CAPE AND HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS...A CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH...AND DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ALL CONVECTIVE MODES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DISCUSSED EARLIER WILL FORCE A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REGION. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE EURO IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH AND HAS A MUCH DEEPER AND COLDER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A H5
TROUGH OF 5760 METERS COMPARED TO THE 5700 METER TROUGH OF THE
EURO. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IS BELOW AVERAGE.
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS...WITH A SLIGHT EMPHASIS
TOWARD THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. AS THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S EXPECTED.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 70S DURING THE DAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW TAKES HOLD. IN ADDITION...BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.  32/PG

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTH 10 TO 12 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT...AND AREAS FROM NEAR
KHUM-KMSY-KASD-KGPT COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FEET
LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT TO
MODERATE FOG AS WELL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WILL BE NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A EAST AND SOUTHEAST COMPONENT DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO A SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST
DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING DRY LINE. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS WILL TRANSPORT DOWN BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. 32/PG


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  49  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  52  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  58  76  63 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  74  56  74  62 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  75  52  75  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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