Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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956
FXUS64 KLIX 111251
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
651 AM CST THU DEC 11 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING SHOWS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION FROM THE
SURFACE TO 4000 FEET. THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY...BUT SOME
MOISTURE IS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE AREA PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS UP
TO 0.60 INCHES BECAUSE OF THIS. WINDS BELOW 11000 FEET WERE PRIMARILY
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN SHIFTED TO BLOWING FROM THE
WEST. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 130 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 36600 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTED 101 MINUTES AND
TRAVELED 92 MILES DOWNRANGE. THE BALLOON BURST NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF MOBILE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU DEC 11 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1026MB HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST CONUS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL  CONUS. A DISTURBANCE WAS OVER
MISSOURI AND CONFLUENT FLOW WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE WAS APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST. 18

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL
REMAIN AS ONE DISTURBANCE DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING AND A SECOND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THICKNESS LAYERS
STEADY AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO NIL UNTIL
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. THE VIGOROUS
PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY AND
APPROACH THE PLAINS SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST...THICKNESS LAYERS WILL START TO INCREASE SLOWLY ON
SATURDAY AND A TAD MORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGH
TEMPS MAY REACH THE LOWER 70AS AT A FEW SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS THE PACIFIC WAVE APPROACHES...PRECIP WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. EURO AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...EURO HAS MORE MID INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
THAN GFS...GFS FIELD ARE MARGINAL. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED TS FOR
NOW MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY. INSTABILITY FOR NOW IS NIL
BUT PRECIP FIELDS ARE WIDESPREAD. WILL INSERT LIKELY POPS FOR DAY
8. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT RELAXED BUT SUCH THAT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN OFFSHORE WATERS AND LESS THAN THAT
NEARSHORE/TIDAL LAKES. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS RISING TO 2 TO 3 FEET. A SOUTHERLY
STREAM FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
WEST AND BRING SEAS UP TO POSSIBLY 4 FEET. WINDS WILL QUICKLY ROTATE
AROUND TO NORTH WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  39  61  43 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  60  41  65  43 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  60  39  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  59  44  63  47 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  58  39  62  44 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  58  36  63  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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