Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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781
FXUS64 KLIX 231302
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
802 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING NEAR THE SFC UNDER AN 8 DEGREE F
POST COLD FRONT INVERSION AT 030 FT. THE SOUNDING IS SATURATED
FROM 018 TO 035 FT SO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN THIS LAYER
AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PRODUCING PATCHY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ABOVE THE INVERSION IS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AND WINDS ARE WESTERLY. THE JET MAX IS 110 KTS AT 240 MB
AND PW IS NEAR NORMAL AT .88 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE ENE TODAY WITH WEAK 1019 MB
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS MAINTAINING A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT SHOULD ERODE/LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THIS MORNING. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH GULF IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY WHICH MAY
FOCUS SOME MARITIME MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND WARMER
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE BUT COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING IN ADVANCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRE-
FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION THAN GFS ON THURSDAY AND PROBABLY MORE BELIEVABLE. DEEP
TROUGHING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING A LAST GASP OF
WINTER COOL FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING IN WITH MID
30S FOR THE MORE INTERIOR SECTIONS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. WILL GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND A POTENTIAL
MODEL COLD BIAS...BUT STILL INDICATING UPPER 30S IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES WITH CLOUD
DECKS RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 FEET. THESE MVFR CEILING SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
HEIGHTS. THEY MAY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH/NW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MEFFER

MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE HOVERING RIGHT
AT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT A FEW LOCATIONS...THEY SHOULD BE
DROPPING QUICKLY AT OR NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS IS DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE
NECESSARY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE WINDS IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT THIS TIME BUT FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  51  76  57 /  10   0   0  10
BTR  73  54  79  59 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  73  53  77  59 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  71  59  76  62 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  71  55  75  61 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  53  76  59 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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