Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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190
FXUS64 KLIX 251707
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1107 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24-30 HOURS ALL
TERMINALS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE
A MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK AND FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.

A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE REINFORCED AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE FORCES ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WON/T HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...SO ONLY REAL EVIDENCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...BUT WILL START TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY.

UPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID
WEEK. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE EURO
BEING A BIT SLOWER...BUT ALSO A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE SHARPER TROUGH IN THE EURO PUSHES THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE IN THE GFS...THE UPPER
SYSTEM IS A BIT FLATTER AND AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THE FRONT SLOWS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND STALLS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. INSTEAD...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND FLOW
AROUND THIS LOW LEADS TO OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADING INLAND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONT. SINCE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE NOT ALL THAT PRONOUNCED...TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES GENERALLY AROUND 5 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS WITH POP
DIFFERENCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WAS USED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 12-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND REMAINING
ELEVATED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WINDS BACK UP TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  38  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  65  40  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  63  41  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  63  45  57  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  62  41  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  62  39  57  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









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