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918
FXUS64 KLIX 250847
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ITS SLOW PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST AREA ENDING BY LATE
MORNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE DRY.
ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
TEXAS THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH POINTS NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY WEST MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AFTER
THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DURING THE WORK WEEK AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL YIELD DAILY SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM
TEXAS. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN OVER TEXAS.  SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION
COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TERMINALS
LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AT TAF SITES REMAINS LOW
AND THE DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

KEG

&&

.MARINE...
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. DURING THE TRANSITION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE LAKES...SOUNDS... AND COASTAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
WINDS AND SEAS TOWARDS MID WEEK.

KEG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  59  86  60 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  88  66  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  86  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  87  69  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  84  65  84  65 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  86  60  85  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$