Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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285
FXUS64 KLIX 060538
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT KNEW AND KMSY
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE AS OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE MOST OF THE DAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT COLD AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL SEE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WILL BE
ISSUING FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE IMMEDIATE LOUISIANA COAST. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT NEW
ORLEANS ITSELF OR MUCH OF SUBURBIA WILL REACH THE FREEZING MARK...
BUT SEVERAL PLACES AWAY FROM THE URBAN HEAT EFFECTS LIKELY
WILL...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE SOUTH SHORE IN THE FREEZE
WARNING AS WELL. THOUGH OFFICIAL FORECAST TOUCHES THE 25 DEGREE
MARK FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT
IT WILL BE AT OR BELOW 25 FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO AND THUS
HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A HARD FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES THAT
BOTTOM OUT IN TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION AS
WELL. THIS DOES NOT MEET WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO TAKE NOTE OF. A FINAL THREAT TO CONSIDER
WITH THESE COLD TEMPRATURES IS FREEZING OF ANY LIQUID THAT
REMAINS ON ROADWAYS TONIGHT. AFTER SPEAKING WITH SEVERAL AREA
EMERGENCY MANAGERS...FEEL THAT THIS THREAT IS FAIRLY MINIMAL AS
THE STRONG WINDS TODAY HAVE RESULTED IN THE EVAPORATION OF MOST
PUDDLES AND MOISTURE.

SPEAKING OF THE STRONG WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
SHOULD BE BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN...BUT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME. EVENING AND NIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT ON FRIDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS WILL
STILL BE BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO IT WILL
FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LIGHTER WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS COMBINE TO
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. AM GENERALLY FORECASTING
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS THAT ARE ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-10/12 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR OR JUST OVER 60
DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ENJOY THE SUNSHINE WHILE YOU
CAN...BECAUSE IT WILL DISAPPEAR FOR THE MOST PART ON SUNDAY AND
NOT COME BACK UNTIL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MUCH MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS TODAY/S FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RESULTS IN OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL BE CARRYING AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES...CURRENTLY IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE...ON
MONDAY. OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL
TRENDS CONCERNING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
WPC INDICATES HEAVIER TOTALS OF AROUND 4.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS EVEN A SMALL NORTHWARD
SHIFT COULD RESULT IN THESE TOTALS BLEEDING OVER INTO LAND AREAS.

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...NO ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SHOULD NOTE THAT MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

MARINE...
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9PM
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS CHANDELEUR AND BRETTON SOUND.
AFTER 9PM...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OVER
THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND...LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY LARGELY DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE SO THE GALE WARNING WILL
BE REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 4PM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT
A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IS LIKELY.

WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EASE SOME MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED MORE NEAR THE AREA....BUT THIS WILL NOT
LAST AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WINDS AGAIN. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCES NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             GALE WARNING/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MARINE AREAS
             WIND ADVISORY SOUTH SHORE
             FREEZE WARNING ENTIRE AREA AWAY FROM LA COAST

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  25  49  27  60 /  10   0  10   0
BTR  26  51  29  61 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  28  53  29  61 /  10  10  10   0
MSY  32  50  38  58 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  29  53  33  61 /  10  10  10   0
PQL  30  54  29  62 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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