Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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584
FXUS64 KLIX 312333 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS 11-15Z. GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. HAVE
VCTS BEGINNING 15-17Z FOR KHUM/KMSY/KNEW AND AROUND 19Z FOR
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES OF
1-3SM...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE IN TSRA MONDAY AFTN.

14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO
REBUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS KEPT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SAT/RADAR NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE RADAR...A ROUGE SHOWER TRIED
TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
IS WEAKENING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SAME
PATTERNS IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. HAVE NOT STRAYED AWAY FROM
LAST ISSUANCE. THE GFS AND NAM STILL SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGING AND THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE. MAIN PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WITH
EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN A FEW
SPOTS. 13/MH

AVIATION...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
BTR...MCB AND HUM. 18

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST GULF. THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF ASSOCIATED INVERTED/TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WEST GULF AND
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OVER EASTERN WATERS. WILL INSERT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/HEADLINES TONIGHT.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  74  91 /  30  40  40  40
BTR  74  91  75  91 /  30  40  40  40
ASD  75  91  76  91 /  20  30  30  30
MSY  78  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  40
GPT  77  91  77  91 /  20  30  30  30
PQL  73  91  75  91 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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