Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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341
FXUS64 KLIX 170524
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.AVIATION...

HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE ROCKIES SHOULD
PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME LOWER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE AROUND FL040...DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. LOOKS LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND
12Z FRIDAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR FLIGHT HAS BEEN COMPLETED WITHOUT ANY ISSUES. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS SOUNDINGS IS THE DRASTIC DROP IN
MOISTURE. UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS
DEFINITELY MOVED THROUGH AND DRY AIR IS FILTERING IN. PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 0.9 INCHES IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS CHANGE AND NEAR HALF
OF THAT FROM THE 12Z FLIGHT THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE...JUST INCREASED BY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRADDLING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST
GULF TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BACK TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLED TO REACH FORECASTED HIGH FOR TODAY. DEWPOINT READINGS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S
SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.79 INCHES IN SLIDELL AT 12Z
THIS MORNING BUT 0.58 INCH AT JACKSON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM EAST OF HUDSON TO NORTHEAST GULF. A
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE THE MAIN TROUGH...OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

DISCUSSION...
LATE SEPTEMBER WX WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER
MISSOURI WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND WEST LOUISIANA COAST TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES HAVE DECREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE ALOFT AND PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIN LAYERS OVER DRY AIR
SHOULD NOT IMPEDE TEMPERATURE FROM FALLING TO NEAR DEWPOINTS
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP 60S FOR LOWS FOR NORTH
AND NEAR 70 SOUTH TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID SOUTH AND TAP
MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST GULF. SHORT RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A
POSITIVE TILT AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH
WILL ALSO BRING IN MOISTURE AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE UP TO 2.1
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2.1 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH MINIMAL INHIBITORS. ERGO...WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. WITH THE WAVE
LIFTING...AXIS WILL NOT BE PRESENT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BUT
ONLY ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...SO COVERAGE MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...
A DROP IN THE THICKNESS LAYERS WAS MORE PRONOUNCED ON LAND THAN
SEA. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND YIELD A SOUTH
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS BELOW 3
FEET.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  71  88 /  30  60  50  60
BTR  72  89  73  89 /  30  60  50  60
ASD  73  89  74  89 /  20  50  50  60
MSY  75  89  77  88 /  20  50  50  60
GPT  73  88  75  87 /  20  50  40  60
PQL  68  88  74  88 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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