Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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914
FXUS64 KLIX 182145
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND STICK AROUND
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MAJOR WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMED UP NICELY AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET UP IN THE LOW 70S OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET REMAINS ACTIVE
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE MODELS STILL HAVE IT TOO WARM
FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION BUT THE COLD AIR IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO TAP INTO COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRESENT A MORE CREDIBLE THREAT FOR
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH SINCE THE ORIGIN FOR THIS SYSTEM IS
MORE FROM THE PACIFIC REGION THAN ARCTIC. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE TRENDS ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD AIR AND
POSSIBLE PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET...THIS WILL
BE KEY IN THE FORECAST. IT IS JUST SOMETHING INTERESTING TO WATCH
BUT ALL GUIDANCE IS FIRMLY IN THE COLD RAIN CATEGORY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE RAIN SHUTS DOWN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TO REFLECT A DRY FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY MORNING. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH



&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE IN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. AS A RESULT...LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL COLLAPSE AND ALL TAF
SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VARIED WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING
THROUGH 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. 18

&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. CALMER WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OFF SHORE...THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK INVERTED/LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE TUESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA...AND
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND LIKELY INTO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
EXPECTED IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND 6 TO 8 FEET
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  67  40  68 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  36  68  42  69 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  37  66  41  69 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  41  68  47  68 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  39  65  44  67 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  36  66  42  68 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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