Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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800
FXUS64 KLIX 140129
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
829 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2014


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. ITS A FAIRLY
SHALLOW BOUNDARY WITH NORTH WINDS ONLY EXTENDING A COUPLE THOUSAND
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXIST
THROUGH THE REMAINING ATMOSPHERE UNTIL THE WESTERLIES AT AROUND
300MB. NO CHANGES IN DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS 750MB
AND ABOVE ALONG WITH AN OVERALL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.4".

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. MODES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS
NOT CHANGED.

LOOKING AT WIND SHIFTS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE
COAST...NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE TIGHTEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT.
ONE OR TWO MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET.

WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. WE
WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR SETTING RECORDS THOUGH. THANKS TO THE MID
AUGUST COLD FRONT OF 2004...MOST RECORD LOWS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND IN THE MID 60S
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE MIGHT SEE A FEW MID 60S LOWS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT THAT/S REALLY ONLY ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO SERVE TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AM
GENERALLY CARRYING ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST CLOSER
TO THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
BY SATURDAY...AM CARRYING 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
ABOUT 40% EVERYWHERE FOR SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTHWARD...BUT MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...EXPECT CONTINUED DIURNAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE TERMINALS
TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED JUST OFF SHORE AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  91  66  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  66  92  69  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  67  91  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  74  92  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  71  91  72  92 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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