Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
973
FXUS64 KLIX 160922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
DRY AIR WAS SLOWLY RETREATING NORTH AS DEWPOINT READINGS RANGE
FROM MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
PLOTS SHOWED THIS CRADLE OF DRY AIR WITH VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS
NORTHEAST. DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES SOUTH
OF THIS DRY AIR MASS. WHILE THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LOSE SOME
IDENTITY...AIR MASS DIFFERENCES REMAIN INTACT THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TO WEST CENTRAL GULF. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN THE SAME AREA OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTH
PLAINS TO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. 18

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DISSOLVE TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR MASS
WILL RETREAT NORTH AND PW VALUES WILL INCREASE UP TO 1.8 INCHES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO GFS. SURFACE HEATING WITH
MOISTURE WILL CREATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
NAM SHOWED SOME SMALL CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH THE TROUGH/WEAKNESS
OVER THE GULF AND THIS FEATURE SHIFT NORTHEAST BUT REMAINING EAST
OF LAND FORECAST AREA AND SHOWING SOME DESCENT AIR NORTHWEST OVER
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALL THESE FEATURES ARE SETTLE AND MOISTURE IS
THE MAIN PLAYER ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
ERGO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AND SURFACE WITH MOISTURE IN PLAY WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...

RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
EXPAND WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING GFS AND
EURO...5OOMB HEIGHTS INCREASE 5930 TO 5940M OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WEDNESDAY AND 5960M JUST WEST OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. 5H TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND -7 TO -8C...SO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WARM TEMPS. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED MAY APPROACH 105 IN SOME SPOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. AS FOR HEAT CONCERNS...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND RAIN CHANCES PROVIDING RELIEF FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WILL MONITOR. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NEAR KHUM...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME VCTS
WORDING AFTER 16Z.  OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.  THIS BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  92  74 /  20  10  30  20
BTR  93  74  93  76 /  20  20  30  20
ASD  91  74  92  76 /  20  20  30  20
MSY  91  78  91  77 /  20  20  30  20
GPT  91  74  91  76 /  20  20  40  20
PQL  91  74  91  75 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.