Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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770
FXUS64 KLIX 091736
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1236 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS
TO CHANGE FROM NORTH TODAY TO SOUTH TOMORROW. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A MUCH QUIETER SHORT-TERM TODAY AND THURSDAY AS COOLER CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW DAILY NORMALS TODAY AND CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND MODERATES. NO REAL
WEATHER ISSUES OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. 24/RR

LONG TERM...

MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS. AS A RESULT...SIMPLY WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 80
DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
PRESENT THEMSELVES...BUT THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE PACIFIC BASED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST IS NOT
SIGNIFICANT. STRONG DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING OMEGA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AND
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND INTO THE OZARKS SUNDAY
NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN A REGION OF ENHANCED
BAROCLINICITY AND LIFT OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY
RACE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING...FORCING A DRY
LINE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH END
CHANCE FOR MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PULL OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES WOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION. THIS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL NEED TO
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MORE MODEL DIFFERENCES PRESENT THEMSELVES ON MONDAY...AS SOME
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DESCENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND THEN
BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS. THE EURO HAS A MUCH DEEPER
AND SLOWER MOVING TROUGH DEVELOP...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A SHALLOWER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FEATURE SLIDE THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AT THIS TIME...AS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
WHAT SOLUTION WILL DEVELOP IS LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS ON TUESDAY...AND BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGHS WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AS A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND INCREASED WINDS
AS WELL. 32/PG

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WIND FIELD WILL DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND THE
OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW DECREASES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER IN
THE WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE BACK INTO EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  76  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  44  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  44  75  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  50  75  58  77 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  47  74  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  43  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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