Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 140037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUE THIS EVENING IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-
DECEMBER. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND FROM THE SURFACE TO
10500 FEET. ABOVE 10500 FEET...MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS. OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF THE COLUMN IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER /WARMER/ THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS THIS EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. AN INTERESTING FEATURE WITH THE
HIGHEST /IN ALTITUDE/ INVERSION WAS THAT IT WAS LOCATED AT 10300
FEET THIS EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SAME INVERSION SAMPLED
BY THIS MORNING/S 12Z BALLOON WHEN THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT
13000 FEET. SO THE INVERSION HAS BEEN MOVING DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST. MID-
LEVEL WINDS WERE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH UPPER LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 91 KNOTS
WAS LOCATED AT 40300 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE
BALLOON TRAVELED 51 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE OVER ITS 85 MINUTE
LONG FLIGHT. THE FLIGHT TERMINATED AT A HEIGHT OF 17 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND SOUTH OF BILOXI OVER CHANDELEUR SOUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A MILD DAY UNDERWAY WITH ONE MORE TO GO SUNDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL
APPROACH FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS
SUNDAY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL MONDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST AS A BLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A MONDAY EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
AREA. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE THUNDER AND
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SCATTERED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 24/RR

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FOR SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS. BIG DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS
GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WHAT WOULD RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IF ONSHORE FLOW FETCH IS RICH ENOUGH TO ADVECT SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY...UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER UPDATE TO
INTRODUCE THIS RISK...BUT HOLD OFF ON SEVERE WORDING UNTIL MORE
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY IS NOTED. 24/RR

AVIATION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AROUND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
OVERALL NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SOME LARGE SCALE RESPONSE TO APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
MONDAY. A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTINESS ON WESTERLY WINDS POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SETTLING TO LIGHTER LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WHAT
COULD BE A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  69  50  69 /  10   0   0  50
BTR  48  71  53  74 /   0   0  10  50
ASD  47  68  50  71 /   0   0   0  20
MSY  51  69  54  73 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  48  66  50  69 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  45  67  46  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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