Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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111
FXUS64 KLIX 102008
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
308 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ON STEADY-STATE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND
PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA RIDGE. MID LEVELS HAVE WARMED TO LIMIT THE
DEPTH OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 89F CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...OVERCOMING 500 MB WARM LAYER AROUND 91F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. RESULT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SLOW-MOVING BUT EFFICIENT
SHOWERS AND BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MAINLY ON OUTFLOW
INTERSECTIONS THAT ARE PROMINENTLY DISPLAYED ON RADAR
PRESENTATION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. MEANWHILE...EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
NORTHEAST GULF UNDER THE RIDGE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE WRF AND HRRR MODEL RUNS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE
OTHER LONGER RANGE MODELS. WILL INDICATE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND TAPER DOWNWARD FARTHER INLAND THURSDAY.
WITH FRONTAL ZONE SETTLING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH FAVORED AREAS FOR FOCUSED RAINFALL DUE TO
VARIOUS CAUSES/PROCESSES...SO WILL SIMPLY GO 50 PERCENT ENTIRE
AREA. IF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE ALIGNS IN CONVERGENT BANDS...THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY UNDERGO SOME SHORT DURATION OF TRAINING WHICH
MAY ACCUMULATE MORE RAINFALL...MOSTLY LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST
THOUGH FRONTAL ZONE MAY COMPLICATE MATTERS.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ALL AGREE IN STALLING THE FRONT ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE GULF
COAST SATURDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT SHUNTS EASTWARD. THIS DIFFERS FROM
MAN-MACHINE MIX THAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DEEPER FRONTAL
ADVANCE WELL INTO THE GULF BEFORE STALLING. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
AND OUTFLOWS MAY INDUCE THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD BUT THE AIR
MASS WOULD BE GREATLY MODIFIED AND RUNNING MOSTLY ON RAIN COOLED
DENSITY. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL BE
INDICATING WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING LOWS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN DEFERENCE TO NATIONAL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
IF TROPICAL WAVE INFLUENCES BECOME INVOLVED THIS FAR SOUTH. WHILE
ON THE SUBJECT...THE NHC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A YELLOW OUTLOOK AREA
FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS IS A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT SHOULD REMAIN OPEN WHILE TRAVERSING UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE SUCH A SCENARIO...ONLY THE
CANADIAN RUN SHOWS A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE THAT DOES NOT LOOK
ATTAINABLE GIVEN CURRENT PATTERN IN PLACE. NONETHELESS...THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO BRING GREATER FOCUS FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANY
STATIONARY FRONTAL FOCUS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL CAN BECOME PRONOUNCED
AND OF CONSIDERABLY LONG DURATION WHEREVER THE FRONT AND WAVE
INTERSECT. THE KEY IS WHETER IT WILL BE OFF THE COAST OR JUST
INLAND ENOUGH TO PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT FOR SOME COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMCB TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY THAT
MAY BRING BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION REMAINS ISOLATED IN COVEARAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT-LIVED. GUST POTENTIAL IS AROUND 20 KT
RANGE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND PROJECTED 25-30 KT RANGE
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM
THE NORTH IS LIKELY TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST LATE FRIDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE TRAVERSING
THE NORTH GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF TROPICAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
THIS WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FEET THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  90  72  89 /  10  30  20  50
BTR  73  91  73  90 /  10  30  20  50
ASD  74  90  73  90 /  10  30  20  50
MSY  77  90  77  90 /  10  40  20  50
GPT  76  89  75  90 /  20  40  20  50
PQL  73  90  72  89 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






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