Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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691
FXUS64 KLIX 151724
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE DRY AIR MASS IS OVER THE AREA FOR AUGUST AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO PRESENT
ONE CAN VIEW THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY INCREASING IN DEPTH FROM 400MB
IN DEPTH TO 550MB IN DEPTH. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
MORNING...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY ANALYZED ON THIS MORNING/S
SOUNDING AND LIKELY WON/T BE TOO MUCH BY LATER TODAY PER
YESTERDAY EVENING/S SOUNDING. THERE ARE HOWEVER TWO TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS TO SPEAK ABOUT. THE FIRST IS THE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL
MORNING INVERSION THAT WILL MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
SECOND IS COLOCATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE 845-825MB
LAYER.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT. THE BALLOON BURST
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1017MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO EAST TEXAS AND LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH GEORGIA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DISTURBANCES OVER NORTHWEST ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 2 INCHES FROM
JACKSONVILLE TO CENTRAL GULF TO WEST GULF.

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES
AND TO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF TIDAL LAKES SATURDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN TO THE AREA WITH PW
VALUES INCREASING UP TO 1.9 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
ALSO ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BY
SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CHANCES
INCREASE ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTHWARD...BUT MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO DISCUSS CONCERNING MARINE FORECAST. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
WINDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS RISING TO NEAR 3 FT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  66  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  69  94  75 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  92  70  92  75 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  92  75  91  77 /  10  10  20  20
GPT  92  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  91  71  91  75 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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