Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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680
FXUS64 KLIX 141734
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVU CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE STEADY DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS BASED AROUND 020-025
MAINLY AFTER 15/1500Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE VEERING FROM ESE TO SSE
THROUGH NEXT 12 HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES ARE
STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD WITH THE CWA STILL UNDER THE RIDGE. THUS
MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS EASTWARD FACING PARISHES
ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. COOLER WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
BY A FEW DEGREES. SAW NO REASON TO STRAY FROM GUIDANCE ON FCST
MAX HIGHS.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AS IT SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING
THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT COOLING. THUS
LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARM. RAINFALL SHOULD JUST BE MOVING
INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES MID MORNING MONDAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST BUT NOT
AT AN OVERLY FAST PACE...POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO A SLIDELL TO
HOUMA LINE. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH
WILL BE RACING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN DUE EAST WHICH IS TYPICAL OF
SLOWER MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED WITH THIS
EVENT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM. CLEARING WILL BE TAKING
PLACE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES BUT THIS WILL ONLY BRING HIGHS BACK TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. THIS WILL
BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO NEAR 60 GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES. THIS COOLING WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN.
MODELS STILL SHOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SHOULD BE
LATE IN THE WEEK TO THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SHOW IMPACTS THEN...THERE/S INCONSISTENCY ON ITS POTENCY. THE
GFS/S MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD BE MORE OF A
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WHILE THE ECMWF/S SOUTHERN
TRACK WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE
AREA.

MEFFER

AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF TEMPO LOWERED VSBYS AT THE USUAL PROBLEM
SITES (HUM/GPT/ASD) IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HRS OR SO. /CAB/

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY WILL
KEEP THINGS LIGHT AND QUIET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY MON WINDS
SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE AND START TO SLOWLY PICK UP AS THE HIGH PUSHES
NE AND A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE WATERS EARLY TUE MORNING
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. CAA
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLAGS DUE TO STRONG
WINDS OR ROUGH SEAS AT THIS TIME. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  52  71  50 /   0   0  50  40
BTR  71  53  75  52 /   0  10  50  40
ASD  68  49  73  56 /   0   0  20  40
MSY  69  54  74  59 /   0   0  20  40
GPT  64  51  70  57 /   0   0  10  40
PQL  67  44  72  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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