Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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516
FXUS64 KLIX 161006
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
506 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS OVER MOST LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING WARMER URBAN AND MARINE INFLUENCED AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN THAT REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
ACCELERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT LEAVING A
FLATTER/WEAKER ZONAL /WEST TO EAST FLOW/ OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER
WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE TEMPERATURES REASONABLY WELL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S
TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NOT AS COOL...MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
UPPER 40S OVER JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. THE LOWS WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND QUITE A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING AGAIN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY
THAT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST
STATES THAT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO KEEP REBUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES. THE GULF COAST REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER MOVES ACROSS FROM THE PACIFIC SIDE.
THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THIS LOW WILL MEANDER OR REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE MARINE SECTION
FOR EXPECTED IMPACTS. SOME OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
CREEPS BACK NORTH.

22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF HAS WEAKENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SEAS SHOULD EASE
AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOST SEAS DOWN TO A FOOT OR
LESS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS FOR A TIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (POSSIBLY TROPICAL IN NATURE) MAY ALSO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS. THIS WOULD
SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH INCREASING ERLY FLOW.
WINDS MAY RESPOND AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AS WELL...WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH AND SEE IF THIS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AND ADJUST
THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AS NECESSARY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  53  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  83  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  81  52  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  82  63  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  81  53  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  80  48  82  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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