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092
FXUS64 KLIX 130425
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KNEW AND KMSY THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. 11

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EACH DAY.
THESE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER INLAND
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
QUICKLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S. HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS.

LONG TERM...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TOWARD
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS WILL GREATLY INHIBIT OVER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
EXPECT ONLY DIURNALLY FORCED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
ANY LOCAL BOUNDARIES SUCH SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND LINGERING OUTFLOW
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
80S. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY
SATURDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY...AND THE BEGINNINGS OF A MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

AVIATION...

CEILINGS AROUND 25 THOUSAND FEET AND VISIBILITY 7 MILES OR MORE
IS EXPECTED. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
IS TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT TO SEE WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ONCE THE RIDGE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  81  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  50  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  51  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  80  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  50  81  56  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$