Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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885
FXUS64 KLIX 180943
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WOULD INDICATE THAT COLD FRONT IS NEAR A MCCOMB TO BATON
ROUGE LINE AT 3 AM AND CONTINUING TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD.
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT...MAYBE A LITTLE DRIER
AIR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOME
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES ARE IN EFFECT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND NOT POLAR. TEMPERATURES NEAR 850MB WILL
ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...WITH A COUPLE
DEGREE INCREASE EACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TUESDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED...WHICH BEST FITS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN MOST
CASES. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AS ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MAIN
PUNCH OF COLDER AIR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON
THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF DRYING MUCH QUICKER THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AND TAPER CLOSER TO
ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARD THE
SOMEWHAT WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT IF GFS SOLUTION GAINS MORE
CREDENCE...WILL HAVE TO BUMP TEMPS DOWN A BIT. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE. WILL KEEP TOWARD
THE COOLER SUNDAY HIGHS FOR NOW. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

KLIX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED W/NW WINDS AVERAGING 20 TO 30 KT AT
2000 TO 3000 FEET SINCE 06Z. THIS MIXING HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP SUBSTANTIAL SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM FORMING THIS FAR...HOWEVER
IFR/LIFR CURRENTLY REPORTED AT KHUM...KPQL...AND KHZR MAY CONTINUE
AND POSSIBLY IMPACT ANOTHER AIRPORT OR TWO BEFORE THE WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL BY
13-14Z DUE TO DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND STRONGER NORTHWEST
WINDS. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SOME STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY BRIDGED
ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MIXED DOWN FROM JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER MAINLY
THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING TO NEAR
MIDDAY...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 17 TO 20 KNOTS. HAVE ISSUED A
/SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/ HEADLINE IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM TODAY
FOR NOW...HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO A 3 TO 5 HOUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF THE GUSTS WELL OVER 20 KNOTS BECOME
FREQUENT. A PERIOD OF CALMER WINDS AND WAVES ARE THEN EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE...THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY
AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL GULF AND EASTERN
GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA...AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
LIKELY INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND 6
TO 8 FEET LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  34  66  42 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  65  35  67  43 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  65  36  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  64  40  67  48 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  64  37  64  44 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  65  34  65  42 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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