National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

928
FXUS64 KLIX 120433
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW TAF SITES...MAINLY KMCB AND KHUM...MAY
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 11


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS EVENING. FAIRLY DRAMATIC
CHANGES CAN BE SEEN ON THIS SOUNDING...NAMELY THE LACK OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...SIGNIFICANT
DRYING HAS OCCURRED. PRECIP WATER VALUE HAS DROPPED ALMOST IN HALF
OF WHAT IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS ALONG WITH CIN IN PLACE BELOW
ABOUT 800MB EXPLAINS THE GENERAL LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A FEW STORMS DID BREAK THROUGH AND DEVELOP BUT TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN HAS ENSUED.

MEFFER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

LOCALLY...WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 3KFT AND 4KFT...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
CONVECTION TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS APPARENT ON RADAR...MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS OF SE LA.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA/S WEATHER
LEADING TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY AND DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 70S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS IS JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS STILL ADVISED TO AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...AND TO
SUFFICIENT PROPER HYDRATION IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AND FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RIDGE AXIS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA...AND ALSO FORCE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT
SOME ONGOING CONVECTION TO SPILL INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND
THE NORTHSHORE PARISHES OF LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE RISK WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT TO
SEE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE BECOMES PARKED DIRECTLY
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY SEABREEZE OR REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WIND EVENTS TO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT A BIT OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. THE WATERS EAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RISING INTO 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE AT TIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  74  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  75  92  73  94 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  76  92  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  77  92  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  72  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$