Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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647
FXUS64 KLIX 310049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
749 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ATMOSPHERE HAS REALLY COOLED OFF AND DRIED OUT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN/S TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
LOWERED BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. IN THE LOWEST 5000
FEET...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN AN INCH AND WELL BELOW THE 0.90
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE FOR LATE OCTOBER. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
MID-LEVELS AND FINALLY THE WEST ABOVE 350MB. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF
57 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 26500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS EVENING/S FLIGHT. THE
BALLOON WAS IN FLIGHT FOR 100 MINUTES AND BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE TERMINATION OCCURRED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PASS CHRISTIAN MS 40 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE
LAUNCH SITE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCALLY...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THE COOLER
AIR MASS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY SITTING IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES SINCE
THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AGAIN. LATE BUT THEN A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND FRIDAY
EVENING AND TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES AT TRICK OR TREAT TIME WILL DROP FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AROUND 5PM TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY 8PM. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY SETS IN...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER.
LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND IT APPEARS POSSIBLE A FEW PLACES WON/T
EVEN REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE EURO GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING THE
SEASON/S FIRST FREEZE HAS WARMED BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND IS NOW
IN LINE WITH THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FORECASTING LOWS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. AM STILL CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...BUT WITH THE
JET PATTERN BRINGING IN COLD AIR DIRECT FROM CANADA...CAN/T RULE
OUT THAT ONE OR TWO ISOLATED LOCATIONS MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECASTS AS THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY...AND BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ALMOST A FULL 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST. WHILE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN HOLDING THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE GFS INDICATES THE NEXT FRONT
COULD ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO
ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT MORE INCONSISTENT WITH
ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUN ELONGATED THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF A LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH RESULTED IN HOLDING THE
FRONT BACK FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z RUN...HOWEVER...HAS COME MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. WHILE IT STILL CLOSES OFF A LOW
OVER TEXAS...IT NEVER TRULY DISSOCIATES FROM THE MEAN FLOW.
INSTEAD...IT MOVES EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED THE FAR
EXTENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS AND ITS FASTER SOLUTION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING AS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER BEING ELEVATED THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRI/SAT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR FRI EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  71  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  47  74  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  45  75  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  46  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  41  76  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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