Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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153
FXUS64 KLIX 311800
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
100 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EVEN AS CLOUD LAYERS
THICKEN AT TIMES THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS AT OR ABOVE
090 ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 040 COULD OCCUR
AROUND KBTR BETWEEN 15-18Z FRIDAY AND SOME OTHER AIRPORTS AFTER
18Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STARTING IN NORTHWEST AREAS AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE
AND CONFIDENCE ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. IT IS PRIMARILY IN THE MID-LEVELS WHERE THE MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED AS BELOW 700MB REMAINS FAIRLY DRY STILL.
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE IN TURN RESPONDED
GOING UP ABOUT HALF AN INCH FROM LAST EVENING TO 1.58 INCHES.
THERE ARE A FEW TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING.
THE FIRST IS THE TYPICAL...SUMMERTIME INVERSION NEAR THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY STOUT. WHILE THE SECOND INVERSION LOCATED
BETWEEN 850MB AND 825MB IS WEAKER...IT MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TRYING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE AS
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING SHOW A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH SBCAPE AND MLCAPE AT 0 J/KG AND A POSITIVE
LIFTED INDEX. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UP TO ABOUT 900MB AND ABOVE THIS LEVEL PRIMARILY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE BALLOON/S FLIGHT THIS MORNING ENDED OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.4 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS TRIGGERED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE
RADAR PRESENTATION OF THIS IS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS HAVING A
HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA STILL SUGGEST A SMALL INVERSION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ANOTHER OBSTACLE THAT COULD PROHIBIT CONVECTION
TODAY. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER ON TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND REACH THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY RAINFALL COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE GOING INTO SATURDAY...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE AIR MASS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT BOUNDARY REMAINS
IN THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW
VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES...SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. AGAIN THIS MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO
KEEP A LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THREAT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS LOSES SOME
OF ITS JUICE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DESPITE STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. THERE WILL BE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A PROB30 MENTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE NEXT 24 HOURS. 24/RR

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  67  87  69 /  30  40  40  40
BTR  89  70  88  71 /  30  40  50  40
ASD  89  68  88  71 /  20  30  40  40
MSY  89  73  87  75 /  20  30  40  40
GPT  90  68  90  73 /  20  30  40  40
PQL  89  66  88  71 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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