Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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706
FXUS64 KLIX 020437
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...

MVFR CATEGORY CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED OVER AREAS FROM
NEAR KL38-KBTR-KHDC-KMCB...AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS
OTHER TAF AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MORNING WITH A BIT MORE TSRA EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED JUST VCSH AND VCTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER TEMPO GROUPS MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA...AND MOST PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED
ONSHORE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE
80S. DEW POINTS ARE BETWEEN 70 AND 75.

SHORT TERM...

ONSHORE FLOW IS IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RETURNED TO NEAR 2 INCHES. MESOSCALE MODELING STILL SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS WILL
BE UNCAPPED...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
REACHES THE AREA JUST BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND CONVECTION
WILL BE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO SEVERE STORM RISK
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AS LINE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
NOT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

FRONTAL TIMING IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH
HAVE THE FRONT REACHING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM IS SLOWER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS AND DISCOUNTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THREAT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE MAV GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TOO WARM
FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...AND HAVE BACKED OFF OF THOSE VALUES
SEVERAL DEGREES. BEHIND THE FRONT...HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MAV
NUMBERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING QUICKER THAN THE NAM/MET
SOLUTION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A VERY COMFORTABLE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES. 35

LONG TERM...

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS IS OVERALL A DRY PATTERN FOR THE AREA IN OCTOBER.
HOWEVER...A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE
SPRINGTIME. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA USUALLY SUBJECT TO
DRAINAGE FLOW COULD FALL INTO THE 40S SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT
GONE QUITE AS COOL AS THE MEX DATA...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE IT OUT EITHER. A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA AND A REPEAT OF THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 35

AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING GOES ON. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A FEW TAF
SITES. 13/MH

MARINE...

FLOW HAS TURNED ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  88  72  83 /  30  50  60  50
BTR  73  89  74  85 /  30  60  60  50
ASD  73  88  75  85 /  30  60  50  50
MSY  76  88  77  85 /  30  60  40  50
GPT  74  86  75  84 /  20  50  50  60
PQL  70  87  75  84 /  10  50  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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