Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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100
FXUS64 KLIX 242152
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION AND THIS WAS THE REASON FOR
THE BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. EXPECT MORE OF THIS TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND A FEW PASSING CLOUDS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. IT LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT THINGS COULD BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL COOL OFF TEMPERATURES BUT WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
FIRMLY IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S FOR
UPCOMING WEEK.

GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SOME TODAY AS BOTH MODELS HOLD OFF ON
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE RAINFALL
MOVING IN IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WELL TODAY GUIDANCE
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH AND PROGRESSION OF A
SYSTEM. NOW THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN
DOES NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. SO
HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND. THIS MEANS THAT IF THIS
IS CORRECT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
NO ISSUES AVIATION WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS EASED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIMITS AND ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION LIMITS. EXPECT WINDS TO
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WINDS BACK UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  63  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  40  65  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  64  39  56 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  64  44  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  41  63  40  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  40  63  37  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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