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349
FXUS64 KLIX 120845
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTH TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
OTHER THAN A FEW LONELY CIRRUS CLOUDS...NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN
THE WAY OF WEATHER TO SPEAK OF. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75
AND 80 AT 3 AM...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
THAN AIR TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE NEAR OR
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME DEBATE BETWEEN MODELS EXACTLY HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY MAKES IT. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE SREF AND NAM. FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE WASHING OUT.

ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ON LAKE/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AREAL COVERAGE
TOO LIMITED TO CARRY IN FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION. STILL DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN 20 TO 30
PERCENT COVERAGE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WHILE A
FEW STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...AS GROUND CONTINUES TO DRY AND RIDGE BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES...INTO THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES. WILL TREND OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
ON HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES...GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES...EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS BELOW
OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER PASSAGE OF FRIDAY TROF...UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ANY CONVECTION BEING VERY ISOLATED.
BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL TRY TO PUSH A
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA...BUT EXPECTED TO HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS
SUCCESS THAN FRIDAYS ATTEMPT. BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR THOSE THREE DAYS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE. FRIDAYS FRONT MAY ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO THE MID
70S. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL IMPACT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR AND AN ABSENCE OF SHRA/TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RISING TO NEAR 15
KNOTS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE...BOATERS
SHOULD NOT HAVE TO DODGE ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.  22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  94  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  73  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  92  76  93  76 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  94  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$