Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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047
FXUS64 KLIX 232054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

A 925MB THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO KEEP AN ELEVATED INVERSION AND
LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVER LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT PROCEEDS AND TEMPERATURES
FALL...THE ELEVATED INVERSION SHOULD QUICKLY TURN MORE SURFACE
BASED. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM...ESPECIALLY
FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS FOG SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE CLEARING AS
THE INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE UPPER LEVELS
TOMORROW AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME MID- LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...SO EXPECT TO SEE SKIES
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO
PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BASICALLY BE A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN FORMING AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE FOG WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BE MORE PREVALENT
AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
MID-MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT...BUT
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK AND TEMPERATURES COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY WILL BE DAY OF TRANSITION AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL
SWEEP DOWN THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF
FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO A LACK
OF STRONG SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE AREA. THE
MAJORITY OF THE VERTICAL LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT...AND EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
PASSING FRONT. THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...KEEPING SOME CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND ALSO
DRIVING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DROP FROM
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ON
FRIDAY AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES IN.

THIS UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
TAKING HOLD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY
ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE HEART OF THE
COLD POOL PULLS TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE...BUT
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO
ARISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE OPTED TO SIMPLY GO WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN
MIND...EXPECT TO SEE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDE OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH ON MONDAY. HAVE WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT CEILINGS RUNNING AROUND FL030...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HUNDRED
FEET. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING WANES. COULD AGAIN BE MVFR CEILINGS TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FOR GOOD BY LATE
MORNING. A FEW AREAS WILL SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY DUE TO
FOG AS WELL. 35

&&

.MARINE...

BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH
OVER THIS PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A
RESULT...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  78  55  80 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  53  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  55  77  58  79 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  59  77  61  80 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  57  75  60  77 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  55  76  58  78 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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