Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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496
FXUS64 KLIX 230040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG 4 DEGREE CELSIUS
ELEVATED CAP AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS CAP STILL IN PLACE...THE RISK
OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS
BASICALLY NIL. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES WILL NEED TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR CONVECTIVE RISK
TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH PW VALUES RISING NEARLY HALF AN INCH SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN EXCESS OF 25
KNOTS.  A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT WILL BE DONE AT 06Z TO GET ANOTHER
ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







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