Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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882
FXUS64 KLIX 221722
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONVECTIVE CHANCES RATHER SMALL...BUT WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCB AND KGPT...WHERE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE IN PUBLIC FORECAST. KBTR HAD SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN BR/HZ EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SEE NO REASON THIS
SHOULD BE DIFFERENT TOMORROW MORNING. WILL CARRY 5SM IN BR FOR
KBTR 06Z-14Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...COVERAGE YESTERDAY WAS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND BELIEVE THAT IT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL POCKET
NOTED IN THE TROP AND THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE TODAY. HIGHS WERE ABOUT
AS EXPECTED BUT COULD/VE BEEN A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IF NOT FOR THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS AGAIN DROPPED RATHER NICELY IN THE
EVNG WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE MID 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHSHORE AND ISLTD LOCATIONS ALONG THE MS COAST BY 8Z.

FCST REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REGION. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING
QUESTIONS. FIRST IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION COULD WE POSSIBLY SEE
TODAY. YESTERDAY APPEARED TO OVERACHIEVE WITH COVERAGE AND IT LOOKS
LIKE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL POCKET SEEN IN THE TROP. WELL
THERE IS ANOTHER COOL POCKET MOVING WEST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE AND
THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME CONFECTION AS WELL. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN IN THE WV AS WELL AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE OVER COASTAL MS AND ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH THAT ALL SAID THIS FEATURE COULD END UP PRODUCING SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS COASTAL MS AND JUST ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER THIS
AFTN SO WILL TAKE A SHOT AND GO WITH 30-40 POPS THIS AFTN IN THAT
AREA. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH HEAT INDICIES AROUND 105 DEGREES AGAIN. AS FOR SAT
AND SUN CONVECTION SHOULD BE A TAD HARDER TO COME BY. NOW THE SECOND
QUESTION IS HOW WARM DO WE GET THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUN. THE
RIDGE WILL BE A TAD WEAKER BUT STILL AROUND 592-593DM BUT LL TEMPS
WILL WARM. H925 TEMPS BY SUN COULD APPROACH 29-30C AND THIS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SFC WOULD SUGGEST A TEMP OF AROUND 97-99 AND ADD A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUPERDIABATIC SKIN LAYER AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
100-101 DEGREES IN ISLTD AREAS. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER TEMPS HAVE MOSTLY UNDERACHIEVED SO AM A LITTLE
HESITANT TO INTRODUCE 100 IN THE FCST BUT WILL INDICATED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S SAT AND NUMEROUS LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AT 99 ON SUN. AS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAT ADV...AGAIN WE HAVE COOLED OFF ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ONE FOR TODAY
BUT THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS MAY NOT
COOL AS FAST OVERNIGHT AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SAT COULD BE AROUND
107/108 DEGREES AND AGAIN ON SUN SO ADVS MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
/CAB/

LONG TERM...MON AND TUE THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT BUT
QUICKLY DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AND THE
NEXT STRONG S/W MOVING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND TWRDS THE
CNTRL CONUS. THE ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TWRDS THE GFS AND WILL
STILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS TO HANDLE THE EXTENDED FCST.

ON MON THE RIDGE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED WITH AN ERLY WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON MON WITH SCT AND POSSIBLY
NUMEROUS STORMS IMPACTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE MON AFTN. AS
PREV FCSTER MENTIONED THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
DRIER MID LVL AIR COULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONG WINDS. AS WE MOVE
INTO TUE AND WED THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN THE RISK FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS BUT WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME CONVECTION WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OCCURRING ON TUE. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION WILL OF COURSE
LEAD TO GREATER CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS
BRINGING AFTN HIGHS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL. /CAB/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE NOT INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BUT MIGHT ADD VCTS
IN WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD BASES AROUND
4KFT DURING THE DAY. 13/MH

MARINE...
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE CYCLE WILL
DOMINATE...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  98  74 /  30  20  20  20
BTR  96  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  20
ASD  94  76  96  77 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  93  78  95  78 /  20  20  20  20
GPT  94  77  96  77 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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