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102
FXUS64 KLIX 110904
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY WILL BRING A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER REGIME TO
THE AREA. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL PROHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ALONG LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES WHERE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING
IS IN PLACE TO OVERCOME THE CAP. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
ISOLATED AND HAVE KEPT ONLY TOKEN 10 PERCENT POPS IN FOR EACH DAY.
WITH THE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 100S. READINGS WILL
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL FEEL
FAIRLY OPPRESSIVE.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
RIDGE AXIS TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA...AND ALSO FORCE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SOME ONGOING
CONVECTION TO SPILL INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHSHORE PARISHES OF LOUISIANA.
CONVECTIVE RISK WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE REGION IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CLASSIC HOURGLASS SHAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDING ABOVE A VERY UNSTABLE LAYER IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS SOUNDING IS VERY CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
EVENTS TIED INTO WET MICROBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
LAPSE RATES ALOFT STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT TO SEE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE BECOMES
PARKED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO AROUND 105
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY SEABREEZE OR REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW WIND EVENTS TO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO SLIDE THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE MORE OVERALL CONVECTION AND HAVE PUT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE
AGAIN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...BUT SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY FROM THE READINGS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KMCB AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMSY...KGPT
AND KHUM WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OTHER
AIRPORTS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR IN HAZE OR LIGHT FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...SO AM NOT INCLUDING MENTION IN THE TAFS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FOG AND LOW CIGS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FROM THE EAST AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME DRY OVER THE MARINE
AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATERS EAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS RISING INTO 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  77  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  92  76  93  76 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  91  76  92  76 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  91  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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