Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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070
FXUS64 KLIX 011053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
453 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

QUITE A DYNAMIC FORECAST TO COME. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WE WILL SEE
THE VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY MOVE
TO EXTREME SW MISSISSIPPI BEFORE QUICKLY RETURNING NORTHWEST TO
BECOME ENVELOPED WITH THE NEXT STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT. FOG
IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NEAR SOME COOLER WATER BODIES COULD SEE VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
MISS RIVER. DEW PT TEMPS MOVING ASHORE ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES.
WATER TEMPS CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY FOUND IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING AS TEMPS FROM BATON ROUGE TO THE
HEAD OF PASSES IS RUNNING AROUND THE MID 40S GIVING A 15 DEGREE
SPLIT. LAKE TEMPS ARE RUNNING AROUND 55 DEGREES GIVING ONLY A 5
DEGREE SPLIT. NEAR SHORE WATERS ARE RUNNING AROUND 60 GIVING A
ZERO SPLIT. ALTHOUGH IF CEILINGS MANAGE TO DEVELOP
DOWNWARD...THESE TEMPS WOULD NOT DEVELOP FOG BUT WOULD SUPPORT FOG
THAT FORMS FROM ANOTHER MEDIUM. MOISTURE LOADING AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SH/TS WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST UNSTABLE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD SEE ONLY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

EACH SUCESSIVE NIGHT MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG AS DP TEMPS OF 65
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING. THAT NUMBER GOES TO
NEAR 70 BY WED MORNING. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD BE FOUND OVER AS
WELL AS ALONG AND OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF WATER BODIES...ESPECIALLY
THE COOLEST WATER.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH
IT. WE WERE FINALLY ABLE TO GET AT LEAST A SAMPLE OF THE JET
ENERGY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ISSUE. LOOKING AT RAOBS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 30H JET WAS MOVING
ONSHORE AT 00Z SUN...SUPPORTED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE EURO THE
BEST. THE GFS WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH. TIMING IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AS THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE NE RATHER
QUICKLY LEAVING THE SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THE COUPLING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTPAC AND STAY ORIENTED OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING
A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR. THE
FIRST POSSIBILITY OF ANY WINTER WX WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THU
MORNING. ATTM THIS AREA LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN ANY ONE VARIABLE
TO BRING THIS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTER WX WILL BE
FRI MORNING AS A SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE COUPLED JET CREATING
SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT FROM SE TX THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING WILL HAVE TO ALL FALL IN LINE PERFECTLY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO MORE MODEL RUNS WITH
A GOOD SAMPLE FROM RAOBS TO INITIALIZE WELL BEFORE CALLING FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WILL UNLTIMATELY MOVE HIGHER
WITH SUCESSIVE WELL SAMPLED RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...A FEW TS COULD MOVE VERY CLOSE TO TERMINALS. EASTERN
TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY. FOG CONDITIONS WILL
HAMPER TRANSIT THROUGH THE MISS RIVER AS WELL AS OTHER MAIN
CANALS AND STRUCTURES. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND SHOULD END ONCE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY AS WIND SPEEDS MY BE VERY
CLOSE TO GALES...ESPECIALLY ON PLATFORMS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  30
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  30  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  30  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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