National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

635
FXUS64 KLIX 132051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED DERECHO FEATURE RACING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
REACH THE COASTAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A BACK-DOOR FRONT. MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN OPTIMAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT IN SPOTS AND MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL REACHING A
BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE CLOSE TO THE COAST OR ON THE TIDAL LAKES.
THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL H5 594DM HIGH BUILDS OVER TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. UPPER FLOW
ULTIMATELY TILTS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF EAST COAST TROUGH TO
PROVDE A RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE THAT MODELS
INDICATE TO SAG INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WARMER THAN
NORMAL HEAT AND LOW DAILY RAIN CHANCES ABOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
BACK-DOOR FRONTAL ZONE MAY DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION UPON
ARRIVAL CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER DULDRUM PATTERN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE COASTAL WATERS ASIDE FROM PROVIDING A BRIEF FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  94  67  95 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  75  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  75  94  73  94 /  20  20  10  10
MSY  77  93  78  93 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  76  91  74  92 /  30  10  10  10
PQL  76  93  72  92 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR