Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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502
FXUS64 KLIX 270100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS
WINDS BLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER /COOLER/ BELOW
7000 FEET THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER /WARMER/ ABOVE 7000 FEET. THE PEAK WIND GUST TONIGHT WAS 97
KNOTS LOCATED AT 38500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS EVENING/S FLIGHT THAT LASTED
107 MINUTES AND TRAVELED 77 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE
BALLOON BURST EAST OF THE BRETON NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AT A HEIGHT OF 20.1 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET SHORT-TERM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE THE NORTHEAST BRACES FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES DID MANAGE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS. THE VERY
LARGE CIRCULATION FROM NOR`EASTER SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS FAR SOUTH FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH SURGE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT ESSENTIALLY WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH FRIDAY WITH BULK OF
ADVECTION SHUNTING EAST. MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BE APPROACHING OVER THE WEEKEND TO INDUCE A STRONG
BUT SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY.
THE MOISTURE FETCH WILL BE VERY LONG...GENERALLY FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND YUCATAN CONVERGING ONTO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR ENHANCED ONSHORE WINDS. THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES AND COASTAL FLOOD CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT PRECEDANT COOL
AIR AND COOLING WATER TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT THREAT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY IN
FORECAST. 35

MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LESSEN A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT THEN PICK UP
FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SURGE RE-ENFORCEMENT AND
DRAINAGE ASPECTS. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER CANADIAN SURGE THOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED THAN WHAT WILL BE
SHUNTING EASTWARD. HIGH MODERATES SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO STRONG LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING. SOME
TIDAL ISSUES MAY RESULT ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  64  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  42  67  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  43  66  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  45  64  45  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  44  65  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  42  65  38  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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