Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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774
FXUS64 KLIX 190820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE LANDMASS AND IS MOVING INTO
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AT 3 AM. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS HAS
DEPARTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT ARE STILL IN THE LOWER
70S NEAR THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER LAND.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS AND
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE
MOST PART. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE. BOTH MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
CUTS OFF THE LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND HAS IT CENTERED OVER GEORGIA. BOTH
MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MOVE IT
TOWARD CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SOLUTION IS FASTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HAS IT IN THE
BAHAMAS SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS IT OVER
WESTERN CUBA. NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND OVER LAND. BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE ECMWF SOLUTION ONLY MOVES THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO NEAR MOBILE BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE 27TH. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AT THAT
TIME...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO RADICAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT MSY AND ESPECIALLY KNEW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND
THROUGH MID MORNING...THE NEAR WATERS THROUGH NOON...AND THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. THEREAFTER...MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  50  80  55 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  79  54  82  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  77  50  81  53 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  77  59  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  77  52  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  77  47  80  51 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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