Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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347
FXUS64 KLIX 261250
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
750 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING MORE OR LESS
FOLLOWS THE PSEUDO-ADIABATS ONCE ABOVE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. THE LOW-LEVELS BELOW 5000 FEET HAVE SIMILAR MOISTURE
CHARACTERISTICS TO LAST EVENING AND THERE ARE A FEW STATIONS THAT
HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. STILL...THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.89 INCHES IS BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH ABOUT 38000
FEET AND THEN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF
30 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 41400 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS MORNING/S FLIGHT WHICH
LASTED 99 MINUTES AND WENT 13 MILES DOWNRANGE. THE BALLOON BURST AT
A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND OVER THE RIGOLETS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL FURTHER WEST OVER TEXAS. ONGOING
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ONSHORE BY THE END OF THE
DAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST. LOCAL AIR MASS IS STILL MODIFYING
AND INCREASING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE WARMING TODAY.
PREVIOUS FCST HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW THE MAV AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MET. LOOKING AT THE MAV HIGHS
FOR YESTERDAY COMPARED TO OBSERVED...IT STANDS TO BELIEVE THAT GOING
BELOW GUIDANCE WILL YIELD THE BEST FCST. MONDAY SHOULD SIMPLY BE A
REPEAT OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST.

LONG TERM...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
UPPER AND SFC HIGHS SLIDING EAST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AND BRING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
UP. THIS IN COMBINATION WILL FALLING PRESSURES INDUCED BY AN
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND RACING EAST
WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO STALL AND SOMEWHAT DISSIPATE UNTIL A
REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...
COULD BE QUITE A COOL START TO THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR STATUS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL WIND. 18

MARINE...
A 1018MB HIGH OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER SURGE MAY YIELD HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY.  18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  59  84  62 /   0  10   0  10
BTR  86  58  85  62 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  83  56  83  61 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  83  64  84  67 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  82  59  81  64 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  82  54  82  59 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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