Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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352
FXUS64 KLIX 270354
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1054 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...

AT 04Z PATCHY RADIATION FOG IS FORMING AT KHUM AND KPQL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. 00Z
SLIDELL UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY PROFILE...SO ANY FOG THAT FORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY SHALLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AT MID
AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND OTHER THAN LAKE AND SEA BREEZES...VERY LITTLE WIND.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE AN
INCH ON TUESDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
AROUND THE FLORIDA UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT HAVE A LOT OF PUSH TO IT BY THEN. WILL BE
KEEPING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT THAT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR SEVERE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED JUST BELOW GFS NUMBERS AS THEY HAVE BEEN A
BIT ON THE WARM END. 35

LONG TERM...

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AS FRONT WILL STILL BE
IN THE AREA. STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL
SEEING CONFLICTING GUIDANCE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL BE TRENDING BELOW GFS/MEX GUIDANCE...BUT NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS ECMWF RIGHT NOW...WHICH WOULD HAVE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CAVU CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24-30 HOURS. NO FOG
FORMATION OF CONSEQUENCE IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT BUT MAY BECOME
MORE OF AN ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 24/RR

MARINE...

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BRING AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS TO THE OPEN WATERS BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ABATES ON
SATURDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  83  62  82 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  58  84  63  85 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  57  83  62  84 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  63  83  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  61  81  66  82 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  57  82  61  82 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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