Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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716
FXUS64 KLIX 281018
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1025MB OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
GULF AND 1005MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM MAINE TO EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM EAST TEXAS TO
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN
ONE THIRD CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ADVECION WAS NOT ABLE TO OFFSET HEATING OF THE DRY AIR
YESTERDAY AS SURF TEMPS WARMED ABOVE GUIDANCE LEVELS. TODAY...COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDE EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL GO 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUT HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE
MID 70S ON THURSDAY.

A STRONG WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE AND MAINTAIN
COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. GFS AND EURO ARE STILL SHOWING A
POSITIVELY TILTED BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY YIELD SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHOW
SOME MARGINAL MID LAYER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES AND THE REST OF FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. ERGO...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AND
MAINTAIN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OLD MEXICO WILL FINALLY
OPEN AND PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF BUT
KEEPING THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR SOUTH OF LAND AREAS ACCORDING
EURO AND GFS. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO FOG IN SIGHT THIS MORNING...
THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY THE CASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IFR TO MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT
PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED
THROUGH HAS BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING...SO WILL INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE. SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY TOWARDS FLORIDA WHICH
WILL BRING LOCAL WINDS BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE. YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF
ROUND OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK
AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDS UP INTO STRONG SCA LEVELS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  45  74  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  67  47  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  65  46  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  65  48  74  49 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  60  48  70  48 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  61  47  71  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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