Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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183
FXUS64 KLIX 251257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED THIS MORNING IN A SFC INVERSION
THROUGH JUST THE FIRST 006 FT. THE SHALLOW SFC LAYER AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. JUST ABOVE THE CALM SFC
CONDITIONS WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MARINE LAYER UP TO AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 055 FT. ABOVE THIS THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ039-040-
     049-050-057>064-067>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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