Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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554
FXUS64 KLIX 150100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS EVENING FROM WFO SLIDELL. POST FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS WERE EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING RESULTING
FROM THIS LAUNCH...SLIGHT INVERSION AT THE SURFACE UP TO 450 FT...
FOLLOWED BY WNW FLOW THROUGH LOW TO MID LEVELS UP TO 5000 FT. NW
FLOW AROUND 7400 FT GAVE WAY TO A SHARP TRANSITION TO VERY DRY AIR
WITH THE TEMPERATURE DOWN TO -30 DEG F... WITH JET STREAM IN THE
REGION A MAX WIND SPEED OF 96 KTS WAS ACHIEVED AND HELPED PUSHED
THE BALLOON 48 MILES TO THE EAST OF LAUNCH SITE AS THE BALLOON
ROSE TO 110000 FT BEFORE TERMINATION.

MGW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
AND COOL/DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT AT A MINIMUM FOR
NOW. THEY WILL HOWEVER DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
GIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE ROOM TO FALL AS WELL. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTED NIGHTTIME LOWS OF RIGHT AT MOS GUIDANCE AS
OPPOSED TO BIAS CORRECTED. THE SAME GOES FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES OF MID 40S TO 50 NORTH OF INTERSTATE
12 AND 50 TO 60 FOR AREAS AROUND NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTHWARD. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WILL HIGH PRESSURE STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE WNW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH AROUND THE
MID 70S. AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
INCREASE HEIGHTS AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP TO CLIMO NORMAL. NO
RAIN CHANCES NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BUT A STEADY 8-12 KNOTS TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND
NATIONAL PARK IN WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY STARTED TO RELAX
SOMEWHAT AND THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO A DEGREE. THIS IS
HAPPENING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. AFTER THAT
POINT...WINDS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW BUT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WINDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY TRANSLATES OVERHEAD.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  74  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  49  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  76  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  48  76  46  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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