Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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067
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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