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838
FXUS64 KLIX 240841
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
DOMINATING DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH LITTLE FANFARE ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE DURING THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH THE WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK...BUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM
TEXAS CONVECTION...HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG AT
LOCAL TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN 3 TO 4
DEGREES AT MOST SITES...EXPECT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS NEAR THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY NEAR KMCB...WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND NOT
WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 35

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE OPEN
WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED OVER THE SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE RATHER QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED BY MID WEEK. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  56  85  56 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  89  64  87  61 /  20  10   0   0
ASD  88  60  85  59 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  88  68  85  65 /  20  10   0   0
GPT  88  61  84  61 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  88  57  85  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$