Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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713
FXUS64 KLIX 191714
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...QUIET NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AFTER 7Z.

LESS CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER TX AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
SHEARING OUT TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
GOING TO LEAD TO SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL KEEP THE POPS ON
THE LOW END. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND PEAK AFTN HEATING MAY STILL
SPARK A FEW SHRA AND TSRA BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
BE MUCH LOWER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO HEAT UP PROVIDING
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS SUMMER. H925 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
26/27C TODAY AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT BY THU
AND FRI H925 TEMPS COULD HIT 28C LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
COMBINE THOSE TEMPS WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND AFTN
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABV 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR THE ERLYS TO
RETURN. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FCST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW POPS AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE HEADS TO
THE NORTH WE MAY START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN HIGHS BUT STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. /CAB/

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  91  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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