Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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781
FXUS64 KLIX 190857
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF
FLORIDA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

LOCALLY...A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER JACKSON COUNTY EARLIER
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THESE SHOWERS HAVE SINCE MOVED EASTWARD AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. COULD SEE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
OF COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE...SO MORNING LOWS WILL END UP NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S EACH DAY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW...AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO TEXAS AND FORCES A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH BEST CHANCES
WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. EVEN THEN...HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK
AND DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...SO AM ONLY CARRYING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE ALMOST NONEXISTENT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL OFF. IN FACT...MAY ONLY SEE A FEW DEGREES
DIFFERENCE TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EACH DAY.

NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA POSSIBLY BY SATURDAY...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AT THAT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH DEWPOINT TEMPS AND CAUSE PATCHY FOG. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT MCB BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z
SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE PATCHY FOG AT BTR...HDC...ASD AND
HUM BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY ABATE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TODAY. WILL CARRY EXERCISE CAUTION
EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH NOON FOR NOW. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY ENTER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  53  80  58 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  78  56  82  59 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  78  54  79  59 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  77  59  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  78  57  77  59 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  78  52  78  55 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.

MS...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





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