Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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796
FXUS64 KLIX 280956
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
456 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY THAT WERE
EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY WILL CARRY FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES COVERING A BROAD SPECTRUM THAT WILL SATISFY THOSE
THAT LIKE BOTH COOL AND WARM. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VERY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A BIG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A BIG ROUGH OVER THE EAST. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND GET SUPPRESSED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES AND CANADIAN BORDER. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL RISE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RATHER COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT
THEN RECOVER QUICKLY IN THE WARM LATE MARCH SUN. HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE TO A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY GIVEN THE LOW MODEL BIAS
THAT HAS BEEN FREQUENTLY OCCURRING IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO.

THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY... ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
MONDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER THE WEAKER
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
WEST TO EAST AND LAZILY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN STATES ON MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POOL SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY COMING INTO PLAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T/STORMS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SIMILAR TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SLOWEST
PUSHING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE GFS FASTER. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ONE OR TWO FORECAST PERIODS THE MOST...AND THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT SOME POINT ONCE THE TIMING
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH A MODEL BLEND
KEEPING CHANCE POPS...AND HAVE KEPT THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE ECMWF IS INDICATING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT FROM THE WEST
POSSIBLY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE WARM SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY BE A FEW
LOWER CLOUDS...AROUND FL040-050...AFTER 00Z AT KMCB AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT KNEW SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO 12Z THIS MORNING. 35

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING AND PLAN IS FOR NO EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WITH THE 09Z ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR VICKSBURG MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WIND
BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS WHERE WINDS
WILL GO SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES PASS
BY THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THEN RETURN TO THEIR MORE USUAL
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ORIENTATION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. DO NOT SEE WINDS
BEING MUCH ABOVE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  46  77  59 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  73  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  70  48  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  56  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  49  72  61 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  67  46  71  58 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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