Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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328
FXUS64 KLIX 200121
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
821 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
IN SHORT...STILL VERY SATURATED WITH PRECIP WATER OVER 2 INCHES.
ONLY REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 00Z SOUNDING AND THE LAST COUPLE
FLIGHTS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE 450MB.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS AS IT SHOWS A POCKET OF DRIER
AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH OVER 3000
J/KG OF CAPE WITH NO APPRECIABLE INHIBITION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FAIRLY NUMEROUS THIS MORNING
..BUT FAIRLY SUPPRESSED DURING THE MID AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
THE PAST HOUR CONVECTION HAS INCREASED FROM THE BATON ROUGE AREA
INTO SOUTH MS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH HEATING AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER SHORT WAVE. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
EVENING BECOMING ISOLATED AS MID LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO AREA.

LOWER AND MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION. RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY WILL TIERED FROM AROUND 20
PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST MS TO AROUND 45 PERCENT COASTAL SE LA AND MS
COAST.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM NM INTO KS...AND EXPAND
THRU MID WEEK. FURTHER EAST...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND EFFECTIVELY CREATING A WEAKNESS...OR
SUBTLE UPPER LOW...BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND WESTERN RIDGE.
THE GFS FORECAST THIS WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE UNITED STATES TO
MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING MID TO LATE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BY SLIGHTLY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS AS AREA IS INFLUENCED BY BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASE AS MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES MIGRATES FURTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN A FAIRLY NORMAL RANGE OF NEAR 90 TO LOWER 90S. MINS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
00Z. SOME BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM 2500 TO 4000 FEET WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AT KMCB...A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. THIS COULD PUSH CEILINGS
DOWN INTO THE IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK. SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM DUE TO THIS INVERSION...RESULTING
IN SOME IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES. THIS
INVERSION SHOULD LIFT AROUND 14Z...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BACK
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 15Z. AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING
IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS RISK. 32

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ORIENTED SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA RESULTING IN A
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  89  72  89 /  30  20  10  20
BTR  73  90  74  92 /  20  30  20  20
ASD  74  90  73  92 /  40  30  20  20
MSY  76  90  77  91 /  40  30  30  30
GPT  74  90  78  93 /  40  40  30  20
PQL  72  89  72  90 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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