Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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671
FXUS64 KLIX 200820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT WAS ANOTHER QUIET YET
WARM ONE. NO CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON THE SCOPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT WAS TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS MAY BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT TEMPS DID DROP MUCH FASTER
DURING THE EVNG HRS WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE MID 70S BY 7Z.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED AND BY FRI
A 594DM RIDGE WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
IN THE LAST FEW FCST THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER POPS AND WARMER
TEMPS...AND MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
SEASON. FIRST FOR TSRA CHANCES...THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
WHILE WARMING LOW AND MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO A CAP. ALL OF THIS WILL
HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON CONVECTION. THAT SAID CANT RULE OUT ISLTD
TO WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SELA COAST WHERE
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS COMBINE WITH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTN
POSSIBLY LEADING TO CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN
THAT RESPECT AND IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI.
H925 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 28-29C AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO UPPER 90S ON
THOSE DAYS. AS FOR ANY POSSIBILITIES OF A HEAT ADV IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA. MORNING LOWS SHOULD COOL OFF IN
MOST PLACES TO ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE
CITY WHERE LOWS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 70S. AFTN
HEAT INDICIES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S. SO WITH THAT SAID IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM AND OPPRESSIVE IN THE AFTN. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. THE MDLS DIVERGE AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS FALLS OUT OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MON NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL STILL DOMINATE
THE REGION LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. AS WE
HEAD INTO MON NIGHT AND TUE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING WEAK ERLYS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MDLS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WITH NOTHING EVEN DEVELOPED YET IT IS FUTILE TO TRY
TO FCST WHERE THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL GO. AS ALWAYS IN MID
AUG...ITS HURRICANE SEASON AND NO MATTER WHAT YOU SHOULD PAY
ATTENTION TO THE TROPICS. UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS NECESSARY IF THERE
IS ANY CHANGE. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS THIS FCST PERIOD BUT RATHER DO
AN UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE... EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  96  74 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  94  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  94  78  94  78 /  40  20  20  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  93  77  94  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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