Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

880
FXUS64 KLIX 272029
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS A
GENERAL WARMING TREND IN DAILY TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DECENT SET UP FOR FOG TONIGHT...AND AM INCLUDING AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IN SOME AREAS NEAR DAYBREAK AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT CONCERNING WHETHER A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.

MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING OF THE
FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT SHOULD ARRIVE SOME TIME LATE
WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THE FRONT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
FORWARD PUSH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN...BUT IT
SHOULD GET THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CAUSING IT TO DIG SOUTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT INTO
THE GULF.

COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
LEADING TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE MORE GREAT WEATHER DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE LAKE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THE
LAKE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATO-CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500
FEET WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE AREA AS A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION REDEVELOPS.
THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN FORMING AROUND 06-09Z...AND BECOME MOST
WIDESPREAD FROM 09Z THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL
TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LOWER VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION OF THE LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND SIMPLY PUT IN IFR RESTRICTIONS OF ONE MILE AND 800 FEET
CEILINGS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS FROM 09Z THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
15Z...THE INVERSION SHOULD LIFT...VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
INTO VFR RANGE...AND CEILINGS AR EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO AROUND
2500 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND BE PUSHED
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  81  64  79 /   0  10  20  30
BTR  63  84  62  82 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  60  82  62  81 /   0  10  10  30
MSY  67  83  66  81 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  63  81  65  80 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  57  81  60  80 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.