Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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926
FXUS64 KLIX 300143
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS WESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 500 MB. A JET MAX OF 90 KTS IS
PRESENT AT 180 MB. THERE IS AN ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
550 MB RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR THE SFC THE PROFILE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN 0Z YESTERDAY. PW IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT .84 INCHES.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  42  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  45  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  70  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  49  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  67  46  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  46  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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