Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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942
FXUS64 KLIX 240053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/S BALLOON BURST WSW OF COVINGTON AT A HEIGHT OF
ALMOST 20 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES DESPITE INSTABILITY AND SOME DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR. WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 550MB ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. ABOVE 550MB WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 27 KNOTS AT ABOUT 7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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