Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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685
FXUS64 KLIX 171755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE 18Z
TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AND VSBYS REMAINING ABOVE 6 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  43  63  48 /   0  10  20  30
BTR  62  45  67  53 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  61  42  68  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  61  49  69  56 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  59  43  64  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  61  38  66  44 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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