Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
130
FXUS64 KLIX 210104
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
804 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED ABOVE 600MB AS WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER COMPARED TO WHAT
WAS MEASURED THIS MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THEN SWITCHED TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. A PEAK WIND OF 57 KNOTS WAS AT 40500 FEET ABOVE THE
GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THAT LASTED 113 MINUTES. THE
BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 31.4
MILES DOWNRANGE SOUTH OF CHALMETTE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT. A
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO AREA
MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE
GULF BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINENTAL
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA POST-FRONTAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING UNDER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN. GULF
BREEZE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT INLAND EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTION TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 24/RR

AVIATION...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IMPACTING KHUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. 11

MARINE...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE OFFSHORE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE MID AND
WEEK LATE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  88  70  84 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  69  91  69  89 /  10   0  10  30
ASD  73  88  74  88 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  74  87  73  88 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  73  87  75  88 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  73  88  75  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.