Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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991
FXUS64 KLIX 180151
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
851 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING SAMPLED AN AIRMASS WELL REMOVED FROM THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT WAS MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.08 INCHES
AND A MLCAPE OF 1979 J/KG. THE ENTIRE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WAS FREE
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSIONS. WINDS UP TO 250 MB WERE
DOMINANTLY WESTERLY WITH A PEAK SPEED OF 23 KNOTS NEAR 2000
FEET...WHICH WAS INTERESTINGLY THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST
55K FEET. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY ABOUT 15Z ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...LESS AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THAN TODAY.
BRIEF PERIODS OF 2500 FT CEILINGS...WIND GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND
VISBILITIES 1-3SM POSSIBLE IN THE TSRA MONDAY AFTN.  14/MM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTH TEXAS SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION OF FOCUSED MOISTURE TAPPED
FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUBTLE ENERGY
PACKETS WERE BECOMING ACTIVATED ON THE GULF BREEZE TO PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILIAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AS GULF BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TODAY WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
MONDAY AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO DRYING. THIS STILL WARRANTS 40
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY RAINFALL ONSET AND
EVENTUAL ANVIL EXPANSE OVER AREA.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENSION FROM LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AND ESTABLISH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL START TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENT
PROXIMAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED 10 PERCENT AND AROUND 20 PERCENT WHERE
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY BRIEFLY AID IN SHORT-LIVED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
TO 20 PERCENT AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY ERODES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID 90S
MID TO LATE WEEK.

MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO ISOLATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST IMPACTS NOW
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION OF VCTS EARLY FROM KHUM...KMSY AND KNEW.
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. LIFE CYCLE OF ANY ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN
LESS THAN AN HOUR. IMPACTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES
OR LESS. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY
ABOUT 15Z ON MONDAY...BUT PROBABLY SOMEWHAT LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  40  20
BTR  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  20
MSY  77  92  78  92 /  20  30  30  20
GPT  78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  20
PQL  76  90  77  90 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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