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558
FXUS64 KLIX 172035
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. A MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA AT THE CURRENT TIME...AND ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ALONG THE
ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA BORDER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ONSHORE FLOW HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATES
10 AND 12...BUT NOT ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO MENTION. TEMPERATURES
AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...AND LOWER 80S
NEAR MARINE INFLUENCES. DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
THEIR CURRENT TRACKS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
INLAND FROM THE COAST. AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. RIDGING EXPECTED TO CONTROL
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE VERY LIMITED. PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN ELEVATED INVERSION BEFORE MIXING
OUT BY MID-MORNING. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP SYSTEMS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK
DOOR...VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 PERCENT
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON EACH OF THOSE DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LITTLE
DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES UNLESS AFFECTED BY CONVECTION. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT TO BKN CU MOSTLY AROUND 3500-4K FT IMPACTING THE
REGION BUT A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH BKN CIGS AROUND
2500-3K FT. AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN LOOK FOR LOWS CLOUDS TO CLEAR
OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVNG. AFTER 10Z THERE
MAY BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY SNEAK UP ABOVE 15
KNOTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING THE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FETCH...SOME MINOR SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  87  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  69  88  71  88 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  70  85  71  84 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  73  86  71  84 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  68  84  68  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$