Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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219
FXUS64 KLIX 270957
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR
13/MH





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