Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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187
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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